As the Primary race transitions into a General Election campaign, I have to say something before a certain astrologer puts words in my mouth about the election. So please bear with me here.
Based on my political black box model forecast projections and the excellent mundane forecasting work of Theodore White, it’s highly likely Trump will win the popular vote. (Surprised? Why?) However, I’m holding off on making a prediction that Trump will win the electoral college vote and go on to be President for now because of the Democrats’ structural demographic advantage in Pennsylvania and the Rust Belt Swing States like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
That being said, one scenario that is possible — based on the Jupiter-Pluto square alignment this November — is the possibility that the Electoral College winner will not receive the plurality of the nationwide popular vote.
In elections, a majority (or popular vote) happens when more than half of the electorate votes for one candidate. For example, if a candidate gets 50.1% of the vote, she gets a majority. A plurality happens when less than half vote for a candidate that wins because the vote is split among more than two candidates.
Now, before you think this rarely happens, and just won’t happen again because Skeptical Political Astrologers keeping telling you this, keep in mind the following:
- 2000: Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the electoral vote.
- 1888: Grover Cleveland won the popular vote but Benjamin Harrison won the electoral vote.
- 1876: Samuel Tilden won the popular vote but Rutherford B. Hayes won the electoral vote.
- 1824: Andrew Jackson won the popular vote but John Quincy Adams won the electoral vote.
Also of note, due to third party candidates, the following Presidents won with a plurality, but not majority of the popular vote:
- 1996: Bill Clinton
- 1992: Bill Clinton
- 1968: Richard Nixon
- 1960: John F. Kennedy
- 1948: Harry Truman
- 1916: Woodrow Wilson
- 1912: Woodrow Wilson
- 1892: Grover Cleveland
- 1884: Grover Cleveland (He won a plurality 3 times in a row, but still lost the EC in 1888)
- 1880: James Garfield
- 1860: Abraham Lincoln (with 4 major contenders, his 39.8% was the lowest plurality ever. Technically, John Quincy Adams won with a lower percentage of the vote, 30.9%, but the plurality was held by the loser Andrew Jackson at 41.3%)
- 1856: James Buchanan
- 1848: Zachary Taylor
- 1844: James K. Polk
Now, if the vote between Hillary and Trump is fairly close, say 51/49, the Electoral College can give the advantage to the 49, which it is designed to do, to give an advantage to the small states.
Based on this fact, it is likely that Trump will do better in small states than in the larger ones so that any Electoral College upset is more likely to be in his favor than against.
To conclude, I think it’s fair to say this is Trump’s election to win and Hillary’s election to lose, and any astrologer telling you otherwise is just pontificating and making a prediction by proclamation rather than looking at the mundane astrological portents and political secular polls and economic trends.
This is going to be either a Reagan-Carter 1980 race or a Bush-Gore 2000 race at this point in the campaign.
FOR THE RECORD…
• I am more committed to the truth and outcome of political contest than my own political expectations or preferences.
• I call it as I see it, not as I want it.
• I have been a registered Independent since 1984.
• I am a political atheist; I don’t believe in political parties.