Prediction Track Record
A published forecasting record, made available for independent examination.
It does not ask you to trust the method. It asks you to check it.
This page presents a curated selection of representative forecasts; the complete Forecast Archive contains the full historical record, supporting documentation, and original source material.
Every forecast documented here was published on a specific date, through an identifiable source, before the events it describes. The record is presented so that the forecast language, the publication date, and the subsequent outcome can be compared directly, allowing readers to evaluate the work for themselves.
The forecasting framework integrates strategic foresight, macroeconomic analysis, geopolitical intelligence, historical cycles, and astrological timing into a single analytical framework. No forecasting method eliminates uncertainty. The relevant question is whether a method consistently identifies meaningful structural change earlier and more reliably than chance or consensus would predict. That is the question this record is intended to help answer.
How the Record Is Evaluated
Each forecast is evaluated against four criteria. Publication is objective — a forecast either predates an event or it does not. The remaining three necessarily involve judgment.
The assessments presented here reflect the Record's evaluation of its own contents and are offered transparently rather than as an independent audit. Readers are encouraged to review the original source material and reach their own conclusions.
What the Record Contains
Each documented entry includes the original publication date, the original publication or media source, the forecast as originally stated, what subsequently occurred, an outcome assessment, and supporting documentation where available.
The Forecast Archive includes forecasts that proved substantially correct, forecasts that were partially correct, forecasts that proved incorrect, and forecasts overtaken by changing conditions. Entries are retained regardless of outcome.
"A record that preserves only its successes documents nothing; it curates."
Summary Figures
| Years of research | Nearly 40 |
| Public forecasts documented | 600+ |
| U.S. election forecast accuracy since 2008 | ~85% |
| Countries reached | 29+ |
The accuracy figure reflects the evaluation methodology described above and represents the Record's own assessment of its historical results. It is offered as a starting point for examination, not as an independently audited result.
Exact 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Electoral College Outcome
Published October 18, 2024, when most polls and mainstream forecasts still described the race as tight or uncertain, William Stickevers' final forecast held through election day.
Outcome: Correct — exact match
Source: williamstickevers.com — 2024 Presidential ElectionSelect Accurate Forecasts Since 2008
Grouped by subject area below. A comprehensive record, including full annual forecasts and detailed analyses, is available within the complete Forecast Archive.
International Conflicts
At a time when most analysts expected continued U.S.–China economic cooperation and deepening integration, William Stickevers forecast that the Trump administration would launch an aggressive trade war against China. Actions intensified from 2018 onward, reshaping global supply chains with tariffs and confrontational policy.
With the Doha Agreement widely expected to hold and enable an orderly U.S. withdrawal, William Stickevers warned the peace process would collapse amid renewed violence and U.S. force redeployment. The Taliban offensive intensified through 2021, the U.S. completed its withdrawal that August, and the government fell rapidly to the Taliban.
Amid a dominant focus on Ukraine aid and few expectations of new strategic signaling, William Stickevers predicted the U.S. would reveal or deploy a new advanced weapon as a deterrent message to China and Russia. On December 2, 2022, the Department of Defense publicly unveiled the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, explicitly framed by leadership as a signal of resolve against peer adversaries.
Political Forecasts
When Kamala Harris was still a relatively new senator with limited national name recognition and the 2020 Democratic field was wide open, William Stickevers identified her as "the one to watch," describing her as being positioned with the strongest overall political indicators in her chart. Harris went on to secure the vice presidential nomination in 2020 and become the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024.
Two and a half years before Biden's July 2024 withdrawal, when his team and most analysts projected strong intent to seek a second term, William Stickevers forecast he might announce he would not run again, drawing a parallel to President Lyndon Johnson's 1968 withdrawal. Biden withdrew on July 21, 2024, amid party pressure, and numerous analyses drew the same LBJ comparison.
At a time when many were still uncertain about the scale of the shift, William Stickevers predicted the UK Conservative government would collapse and be replaced by Labour in a landslide. The July 4, 2024 election delivered a Labour victory with a 174-seat majority and the Conservatives' worst defeat in history.
Assets
When Bitcoin was still known only to a small circle of technologists and valued at pennies, William Stickevers — a former IT professional — forecast it would become a significant financial asset with substantial price increases, identifying the monetary significance through cycle research before mainstream analysts were paying attention. He raised the topic at the 2012 United Astrology Conference financial astrology panel, where none of the other panelists had heard of it. Bitcoin later reached an all-time high above $126,000 in 2025.
When many market forecasts projected Bitcoin remaining below $100,000 through the end of 2024, William Stickevers called for it to exceed that level. Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 in December 2024 and climbed higher into 2025.
With consensus expecting only modest gains or consolidation for gold, William Stickevers forecast a substantial rally targeting roughly $2,400/oz into 2025, including major moves between August and October 2024. Gold broke $2,400 repeatedly, reached all-time highs, and sustained gains into 2025, with the bullish thesis continuing into 2026.
When markets widely anticipated stabilization in traditional finance and equities, William Stickevers forecast that Bitcoin and gold would surge as safe-haven assets amid eroding trust in conventional systems. Gold rose approximately 65% for the year to record peaks, while Bitcoin climbed to new all-time highs before stabilizing at elevated levels.
Structural Shifts
Weeks before COVID-related lockdowns, when mainstream consensus expected continued economic expansion with only mild slowdown risk, William Stickevers forecast a major crisis or collapse in the U.S. manufacturing index during the second half of 2020. The ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to historic lows; manufacturing weakness and reconfiguration continued through 2021–2025.
When most observers expected quick containment and minimal global impact, William Stickevers predicted the coronavirus would spread in distinct waves — a first phase in Q1–Q2 2020, a second later that year possibly reaching other regions — causing severe economic disruption, especially in China. The pandemic unfolded in that multi-wave pattern, with deep economic disruption worldwide.
On the Limits of Forecasting
- Markets evolve.
- Political events shift.
- Technology accelerates.
- Unexpected developments alter the landscape.
A forecasting framework should not be judged by whether it avoids uncertainty, but by whether, over a sufficiently long record, it recognizes meaningful structural change earlier and more consistently than available alternatives.
This record advances a single claim: its forecasting framework can be evaluated fairly only by examining what was published before events occurred.
Why This Record Matters
Forecasts have value only before events occur. After an event unfolds, almost anyone can explain it with the benefit of hindsight. The practical value of forecasting lies in helping individuals and organizations recognize meaningful change while important decisions can still be made.
For that reason, this record preserves forecasts as they were originally published rather than rewriting them in light of subsequent events.
Review the Complete Forecast Archive
The complete Forecast Archive includes original publication dates, source material, forecasts exactly as published, documented outcomes, and supporting evidence wherever available. Entries assessed as partially correct, incorrect, or overtaken by changing conditions are included alongside those assessed as substantially correct.
Open the complete Forecast Archive
Readers are encouraged to examine the original source material and reach their own conclusions. Assessments reflect the Record's own evaluation methodology and are not independently audited.