Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Predictions for the
2024 U.S. Presidential Election
by William Stickevers, Master Astrologer
Updated: November 5, 2024 at 2:30pm PST
83.5% Accuracy Since the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Total Predictions: 553 | Total Correct Predictions: 462
Overview
This page lists the predictions for the Electoral College and Final Outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election from:
- FiveThirtyEight
- Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin
- PredictIt
- Polymarket
- Real Clear Politics (Real Clear Polling)
- William Stickevers‘ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
- AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
- Margin of Error is +/- 1.9% with a 95% level of confidence.
- Each horary question will be focused on a specific race, as well as the outcome of the election.
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Accuracy Track Record 2008-2022:
83.5% Accuracy Track Record: 553 predictions, 462 correct
- 2008 U.S. Democratic Primary Elections – 66.7% correct
“Too Close To Call” Races, 4 correct of 6 total - 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election – 96.1% correct
Electoral College, 49 correct of 51 total - 2010 U.S. Midterm Election – 82.9% correct
Closely Contested Races, 29 correct of 35 total - 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election – 88.2% correct
Electoral College, 45 correct of 51 total
- 2014 U.S. Midterm Election – 83.3% correct
“Too Close To Call” Races, 5 correct of 6 total - 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections – 86.7% correct
85 correct of 98 total - 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election – 92.2% correct
Electoral College, 47 correct of 51 total - 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections – 81.0% correct
Closely Contested Races, 98 correct of 121 total
- 2020 U.S. Democratic Primary Elections – 80.6% correct
29 correct of 36 total - 2020 General Presidential Election – 92.9% correct
Electoral College, 52 correct of 56 total - 2022 Midterm Election – 52.9% correct
Closely Contested Races, 18 correct of 34 total
Projection Maps for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
Who will win the presidency?
William Stickevers’s Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
✅ Trump 65%
(as of October 18, 2024)
Other Projection Maps – as of November 5, 2024 (6:00am PST):
Five Thirty Eight
Polymarket
Real Clear Politics
Final Outcome Prediction
for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
Who will win the presidency?
as of November 5, 2024 at 2:30 pm PST
| FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Polymarket | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers’ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability (as of Oct. 18, 2024) |
| ❌ Harris – 50%, Trump 49% |
✅ Trump – 60% | ✅ Trump – 62.1% | n/a | ✅ Trump 65% |
Electoral College State Projections
for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
*Battleground States
as of November 5, 2024 at 2:30 pm PST
| FiveThirtyEight | Polymarket | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers’ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability (as of Oct. 18, 2024) | |
| Alabama | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Alaska | ✅ Trump – 97% | ✅ Trump – 94% | ✅ Trump – Likely | ✅ Trump – 90% |
| Arizona* | ✅ Trump – 67% | ✅ Trump – 73% |  Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 65% |
| Arkansas | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| California | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 99% |
| Colorado | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 95% | ✅ Harris – Likely | ✅ Harris -85% |
| Connecticut | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| Delaware | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 97% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| District of Columbia | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 99% | |
| Florida | ✅ Trump – 89% | ✅ Trump – 94% | ✅ Trump – Leans | ✅ Trump – 85% |
| Georgia* | ✅ Trump – 60% | ✅ Trump – 72% | Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 60% |
| Hawaii | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 97% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 99% |
| Idaho | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 100% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Illinois | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Likely | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| Indiana | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 98% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Iowa | ✅ Trump – 93% | ✅ Trump – 94% | ✅ Trump – Likely | ✅ Trump – 90% |
| Kansas | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Likely | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Kentucky | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 100% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Louisiana | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Maine – statewide | ✅ Harris – 96% | ✅ Harris – 86% | ✅ Harris – Leans | ✅ Harris – 85% |
| Maine – 1st district | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Likely | ✅ Harris – 55% |
| Maine – 2nd district | ✅ Trump – 90% | ✅ Trump – 93% | ✅ Trump – Leans | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Maryland | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| Massachusetts | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| Michigan* | ❌ Harris – 61% | ✅ Trump – 54% | Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 55% |
| Minnesota | ✅ Harris – 88% | ✅ Harris – 83% | Toss Up | ✅ Harris – 85% |
| Mississippi | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Missouri | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Likely | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Montana | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Likely | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Nebraska – statewide | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Nebraska – 1st district | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 95% | |
| Nebraska – 2nd district | ✅ Harris – 92% | ✅ Harris – 83% | Toss Up | ✅ Harris – 80% |
| Nebraska – 3rd district | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 95% | |
| Nevada* | 50/50 | ✅ Trump 65% | Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 53% |
| New Hampshire | ✅ Harris – 89% | ✅ Harris – 81% | ✅ Harris – Leans | ✅ Harris – 85% |
| New Jersey | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – 95% | ✅ Harris – Likely | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| New Mexico | ✅ Harris – 93% | ✅ Harris – 88% | ✅ Harris – Leans | ✅ Harris – 85% |
| New York | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 97% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 90% |
| North Carolina* | ✅ Trump – 59% | ✅ Trump – 70% | Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 60% |
| North Dakota | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 99% |
| Ohio | ✅ Trump – 95% | ✅ Trump – 94% | ✅ Trump – Leans | ✅ Trump – 90% |
| Oklahoma | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 99% |
| Oregon | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 96% | ✅ Harris – Likely | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| Pennsylvania* | 50/50 | ✅ Trump – 60% | Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 55% |
| Rhode Island | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| South Carolina | ✅ Trump – 98% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Likely | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| South Dakota | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 100% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 99% |
| Tennessee | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 100% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Texas | ✅ Trump – 93% | ✅ Trump – 93% | ✅ Trump – Leans | ✅ Trump – 85% |
| Utah | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 95% |
| Vermont | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 99% |
| Virginia | ✅ Harris – 92% | ✅ Harris – 83% | ✅ Harris – Leans | ✅ Harris – 80% |
| Washington | ✅ Harris – 99% | ✅ Harris – 98% | ✅ Harris – Solid | ✅ Harris – 95% |
| West Virginia | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 99% |
| Wisconsin* | ❌ Harris – 59% | ✅ Trump – 57% | Toss Up | ✅ Trump – 55% |
| Wyoming | ✅ Trump – 99% | ✅ Trump – 100% | ✅ Trump – Solid | ✅ Trump – 99% |
Previous 2024 Election Electoral College Projections
Projection Maps for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
As of October 26, 2024:
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
Who will win the presidency?
William Stickevers’s Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
TRUMP – 65%
as of October 18, 2024
Five Thirty Eight
Polymarket
Real Clear Politics
As of October 18, 2024:
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
Who will win the presidency?
William Stickevers’s Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
TRUMP – 65%
Five Thirty Eight
Polymarket
Real Clear Politics
As of August 20, 2024:
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
Who will win the presidency?
William Stickevers’s Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
TRUMP – 55%
As of July 20, 2024:
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
Who will win the presidency?
William Stickevers’s Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
TRUMP – 75%
Who will win the presidency? (Final Outcome)
as of October 26, 2024 at 4:51 pm PDT
| FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Polymarket | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers’ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability (as of Oct. 18, 2024) |
| Trump – 54% | Trump – 60% | 64.6% | n/a | Trump 65% |
Who will win the presidency? (Electoral College)
as of October 26, 2024 at 5:23 pm PDT
| FiveThirtyEight | Polymarket | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers’ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability (as of Oct. 18, 2024) |
|
| Alabama | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Alaska | Trump – 97% | Trump – 94% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 90% |
| Arizona* | Trump – 66% | Trump – 73% | Toss Up | Trump – 65% |
| Arkansas | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| California | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% |
| Colorado | Harris – 97% | Harris – 95% | Harris – Likely | Harris -85% |
| Connecticut | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| Delaware | Harris – 99% | Harris – 97% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| District of Columbia | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% | |
| Florida | Trump – 87% | Trump – 94% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 85% |
| Georgia* | Trump – 63% | Trump – 72% | Toss Up | Trump – 60% |
| Hawaii | Harris – 99% | Harris – 97% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% |
| Idaho | Trump – 99% | Trump – 100% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Illinois | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 95% |
| Indiana | Trump – 99% | Trump – 98% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Iowa | Trump – 95% | Trump – 94% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 90% |
| Kansas | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| Kentucky | Trump – 99% | Trump – 100% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Louisiana | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Maine – statewide | Harris – 91% | Harris – 86% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 85% |
| Maine – 1st district | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 55% |
| Maine – 2nd district | Trump – 91% | Trump – 93% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 95% |
| Maryland | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| Massachusetts | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| Michigan* | Harris – 52% | Trump – 54% | Toss Up | Trump – 55% |
| Minnesota | Harris – 82% | Harris – 83% | Toss Up | Harris – 85% |
| Mississippi | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Missouri | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| Montana | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| Nebraska – statewide | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Nebraska – 1st district | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | ||
| Nebraska – 2nd district | Harris – 83% | Harris – 83% | Toss Up | Harris – 80% |
| Nebraska – 3rd district | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | ||
| Nevada* | Harris – 53% | Trump 65% | Toss Up | Trump – 53% |
| New Hampshire | Harris – 82% | Harris – 81% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 85% |
| New Jersey | Harris – 98% | Harris – 95% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 95% |
| New Mexico | Harris – 89% | Harris – 88% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 85% |
| New York | Harris – 99% | Harris – 97% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 90% |
| North Carolina* | Trump – 62% | Trump – 70% | Toss Up | Trump – 60% |
| North Dakota | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Ohio | Trump – 94% | Trump – 94% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 90% |
| Oklahoma | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Oregon | Harris – 98% | Harris – 96% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 95% |
| Pennsylvania* | Trump – 53% | Trump – 60% | Toss Up | Trump – 55% |
| Rhode Island | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| South Carolina | Trump – 98% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| South Dakota | Trump – 99% | Trump – 100% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Tennessee | Trump – 99% | Trump – 100% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Texas | Trump – 90% | Trump – 93% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 85% |
| Utah | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Vermont | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% |
| Virginia | Harris – 86% | Harris – 83% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 80% |
| Washington | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| West Virginia | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Wisconsin* | Harris – 51% | Trump – 57% | Toss Up | Trump – 55% |
| Wyoming | Trump – 99% | Trump – 100% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
as of October 18, 2024 at 8:58 pm PDT
| FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Polymarket | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers’ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| Trump – 52% | Trump – 55% | 59.9% | n/a | Trump 65% |
Electoral College State Projections
for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
*Battleground States
as of October 18, 2024 at 8:58 pm PDT
| FiveThirtyEight | Polymarket | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers’ Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Alabama | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Alaska | Trump – 94% | Trump – 92% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 90% |
| Arizona* | Trump – 63% | Trump – 70% | Toss Up | Trump – 65% |
| Arkansas | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| California | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% |
| Colorado | Harris – 96% | Harris – 95% | Harris – Likely | Harris -85% |
| Connecticut | Harris – 99% | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| Delaware | Harris – 99% | Harris – 97% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| District of Columbia | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% | |
| Florida | Trump – 82% | Trump – 91% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 85% |
| Georgia* | Trump – 63% | Trump – 65% | Toss Up | Trump – 60% |
| Hawaii | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% |
| Idaho | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Illinois | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 95% |
| Indiana | Trump – 99% | Trump – 98% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Iowa | Trump – 99% | Trump – 93% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 90% |
| Kansas | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| Kentucky | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Louisiana | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Maine – statewide | Harris – 91% | Harris – 88% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 85% |
| Maine – 1st district | Harris – 99% | Harris – 98% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 55% |
| Maine – 2nd district | Trump – 86% | Trump – 87% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 95% |
| Maryland | Harris – 99% | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| Massachusetts | Harris – 99% | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| Michigan* | Harris – 52% | Trump – 55% | Toss Up | Trump – 55% |
| Minnesota | Harris – 82% | Harris – 90% | Toss Up | Harris – 85% |
| Mississippi | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Missouri | Trump – 98% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| Montana | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| Nebraska – statewide | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Nebraska – 1st district | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | ||
| Nebraska – 2nd district | Harris – 83% | Harris – 89% | Toss Up | Harris – 80% |
| Nebraska – 3rd district | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | ||
| Nevada* | Harris – 52% | 50/50 | Toss Up | Trump – 53% |
| New Hampshire | Harris – 84% | Harris – 85% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 85% |
| New Jersey | Harris – 98% | Harris – 95% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 95% |
| New Mexico | Harris – 87% | Harris – 91% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 85% |
| New York | Harris – 99% | Harris – 96% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 90% |
| North Carolina* | Trump – 58% | Trump – 65% | Toss Up | Trump – 60% |
| North Dakota | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Ohio | Trump – 91% | Trump – 93% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 90% |
| Oklahoma | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Oregon | Harris – 98% | Harris – 97% | Harris – Likely | Harris – 95% |
| Pennsylvania* | Trump – 51% | Trump – 57% | Toss Up | Trump – 55% |
| Rhode Island | Harris – 99% | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| South Carolina | Trump – 98% | Trump – 98% | Trump – Likely | Trump – 95% |
| South Dakota | Trump – 99% | Trump – 100% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Tennessee | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Texas | Trump – 86% | Trump – 90% | Trump – Leans | Trump – 85% |
| Utah | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 95% |
| Vermont | Harris – 99% | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 99% |
| Virginia | Harris – 89% | Harris – 84% | Harris – Leans | Harris – 80% |
| Washington | Harris – 99% | Harris – 99% | Harris – Solid | Harris – 95% |
| West Virginia | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |
| Wisconsin* | 50/50 | Trump – 56% | Toss Up | Trump – 55% |
| Wyoming | Trump – 99% | Trump – 99% | Trump – Solid | Trump – 99% |