U.S. ELECTION PREDICTIONS TRACK RECORD
2022 Midterm Election
Closely Contested Races
Predictions by William Stickevers
Accuracy: 52.9%
- Total Predictions: 34
- Accurate Predictions: 18
Five Thirty Eight:
23 accurate predictions, 67.6% accuracy
PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2022 MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Closely Contested Senate and House Races
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*
and the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election
SENATE – HOUSE – GOVERNOR
Updated November 8, 2022 at 9:25 AM PST:
Overview
This page lists the predictions for the party to control the Senate and House after the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election, as well as predictions for the outcome of the Closely Contested Governor, District and State Elections for House and Senate seats from:
- FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver
- PredictIt
- CNN Politics
- Politico
- Real Clear Politics
- Political Contest Horary AstroProbability* generated by geopolitical astrologer William Stickevers
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*
Each horary question will be focused on a specific race, as well as control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
This page will be updated regularly with new projections leading up to the November 8th Midterm Election.
*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
Margin of Error is +/- 1.9% with a 95% level of confidence.
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Accuracy Track Record 2008-2020:
519 predictions / 444 correct = 85.5% Accuracy Track Record
- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Electoral College – 93% correct
- 2018 U.S. Midterm “Too Close To Call” Elections – 81% correct
- Accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
- 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 92% correct
- 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections – 87% correct
- 2014 U.S. Midterm “Too Close To Call” Elections – 83% correct
- 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 88% correct
- 2010 U.S. Midterm “Toss-Up” Senate and House Elections – 80% correct
- Accurately predicted the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election
- 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 96% correct
- Accurately predicted the outcome of the 2008 Democratic Primary Nomination
- 2008 U.S. Democratic Primary “Too Close To Call” Elections – 60% correct
The 2016, 2018, and 2020 election predictions were done with a team of political contest horary astrologers, led by William Stickevers.
Senate
AstroProbability Projection for the November 8th 2022 U.S. Midterm Election
Senate Control
51 Seats Needed for Majority
as of November 8, 2022:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary as of Oct 20, 2022 | |
| Senate Control |   REP59% | REP 79% | n/a | Toss-Up | REP | REP 65% |
Senate – Closely Contested Elections
as of November 8, 2022:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Kelly-D vs Masters-R |   DEM66% | REP 54% | DEM Tilt | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Georgia (GA) Warnock-D vs Walker-R | REP 63% | REP 68% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Nevada (NV) Masto-D vs Laxalt-R | REP 51% | REP 74% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New Hampshire (NH) Hassan*-D vs Bolduc-R | DEM 72% | DEM 63% | DEM Tilt | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 50.5% |
| North Carolina (NC) Beasley-D vs Bud-R | REP 82% | REP 90% | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 54% |
| Pennsylvania (PA) Fetterman-D vs Oz-R | REP 57% | REP 66% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Washington (WA) Murray-D vs Smiley-R | DEM 92% | DEM 84% | DEM Likely | DEM Lean | Toss Up | DEM 50.2% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Barnes-D vs Johnson-R | REP 81% | REP 88% | REP Tilt | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here.
House of Representatives
AstroProbability Projection for the November 8th 2022 U.S. Midterm Election
House Control
218 Seats Needed for Majority Control
as of November 8, 2022:
Record of the Previous House Projections here
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary as of Oct 20, 2022 | |
| House Control | REP 84% | REP 94% | n/a | REP Likely | REP | REP 65% |
House of Representatives – Closely Contested Elections
as of November 8, 2022
Record of the Previous House Projections here
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 61% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Smith-D vs Garcia*-R | REP 63% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 80% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss Up | DEM 53% |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 58% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 84% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 59% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss Up | DEM 52% |
| Nevada (NV), 1st Titus-D vs Robertson-R | DEM 53% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| New York (NY), 17th Maloney-D vs Lawler-R | DEM 70% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 58% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | Toss Up | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 64% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 78% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss Up | DEM 52% |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 56% | n/a | Toss Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 54% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 54% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | REP 52% | n/a | REP Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
Record of the Previous House Projections here.
Governor
AstroProbability Projection for the November 8th 2022 U.S. Midterm Election
Governor – Closely Contested Elections
as of November 8, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Hobbs-D vs Lake-R | REP 68% | REP 82% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Kansas (KS) Kelly-D vs Schmidt-R | DEM 62% | REP 59% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | DEM 50.5% |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 85% | DEM 78% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Sisolak-D vs Lombardo-R | REP 61% | REP 83% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY) Hochul-D vs Zeldin-R | DEM 95% | DEM 74% | DEM Likely | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Oregon (OR) Kotek-D vs Drazan-R | DEM 63% | DEM 60% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Oklahoma (OK) Hofmeister-D vs Stitt-R | REP 92% | n/a | REP Likely | REP Likely | Toss Up | REP 68% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | REP 53% | REP 69% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 52% |
Record of the Previous Governor Projections here.
SOURCES:
Below are the past projections for the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election – SENATE
SENATE CONTROL
50 Dem Seats or 51 Rep Seats Needed for Majority Control
as of November 4, 2022:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary as of Oct 20, 2022 | |
| Senate Control |  REP54% | REP 74% | n/a | Toss-Up | REP | REP 65% |
———————
as of October 20, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Senate Control |  Slightly Favored | REP 65% | n/a | Toss-Up | REP | REP 65% |
…………………………………………
SENATE ELECTIONS
Senate – Closely Contested Elections
as of November 5, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Kelly-D vs Masters-R | DEM 64% | REP 56% | DEM Tilt | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Georgia (GA) Warnock-D vs Walker-R | REP 58% | REP 63% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Nevada (NV) Masto-D vs Laxalt-R | REP 58% | REP 79% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New Hampshire (NH) Hassan*-D vs Bolduc-R | DEM 74% | DEM 66% | DEM Tilt | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 50.5% |
| North Carolina (NC) Beasley-D vs Bud-R | REP 81% | REP 90% | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 54% |
| Pennsylvania (PA) Fetterman-D vs Oz-R | DEM 53% | REP 62% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Barnes-D vs Johnson-R | REP 78% | REP 87% | REP Tilt | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
———————–
as of November 4, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary as of Oct 28, 2022 | |
| Arizona (AZ) Kelly-D vs Masters-R | DEM 65% | REP 55% | DEM Tilt | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Georgia (GA) Warnock-D vs Walker-R | REP 57% | REP 63% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Nevada (NV) Masto-D vs Laxalt-R | REP 57% | REP 77% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 53% |
| New Hampshire (NH) Hassan*-D vs Bolduc-R | DEM 73% | DEM 60% | DEM Tilt | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | DEM 50% |
| North Carolina (NC) Beasley-D vs Bud-R | REP 82% | REP 90% | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 54% |
| Pennsylvania (PA) Fetterman-D vs Oz-R | DEM 53% | REP 62% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
——————————
as of October 28, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Kelly-D vs Masters-R | DEM 70% | REP 57% | DEM Tilt | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Georgia (GA) Warnock-D vs Walker-R | REP 52% | REP 63% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Nevada (NV) Masto-D vs Laxalt-R | REP 53% | REP 67% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 53% |
| New Hampshire (NH) Hassan*-D vs Bolduc-R | DEM 75% | DEM 62% | DEM Tilt | DEM Leans | Toss-Up | DEM 50% |
| North Carolina (NC) Beasley-D vs Bud-R | REP 78% | REP 89% | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 54% |
| Pennsylvania (PA) Fetterman-D vs Oz-R | DEM 59% | REP 67% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
————————-
as of October 23, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Georgia (GA) Warnock-D vs Walker-R | DEM 55% | REP 54% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Nevada (NV) Laxalt-R vs Masto-D | Toss-Up | REP 69% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 53% |
| New Hampshire (NH) Hassan*-D vs Bolduc-R | DEM 82% | DEM 77% | DEM Tilt | DEM Leans | DEM | DEM 50% |
| North Carolina (NC) Bud-R vs Beasley-D | REP 75% | REP 86% | REP Tilt | REP Leans | Toss-Up | REP 54% |
| Pennsylvania (PA) Fetterman-D vs Oz-R | DEM 65% | REP 56% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
——————————
as of October 20, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Georgia (GA) Warnock-D vs Walker-R | DEM 55% | REP 54% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Nevada (NV) Laxalt-R vs Masto-D | Toss-Up | REP 69% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 53% |
| North Carolina (NC) Bud-R vs Beasley-D | REP 75% | REP 86% | REP Tilt | REP Leans | Toss-Up | REP 54% |
| Pennsylvania (PA) Fetterman-D vs Oz-R | DEM 65% | REP 56% | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
Below are the past projections for the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election – HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
HOUSE CONTROL
218 Seats Needed for Majority Control
as of November 4, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary as of Oct 20, 2022 | |
| House Control | REP 84% | REP 91% | n/a | REP Likely | REP | REP 65% |
——————————-
as of October 20, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| House Control | REP 79% | REP 88% | n/a | REP Likely | REP | REP 65% |
…………………………………………
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ELECTIONS
House of Representatives – Closely Contested Elections
as of November 6, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 57% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Smith-D vs Garcia*-R | REP 63% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 79% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss Up | DEM 53% |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 58% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 81% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 58% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss Up | DEM 52% |
| Nevada (NV), 1st Titus-D vs Robertson-R | DEM 53% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| New York (NY), 17th Maloney-D vs Lawler-R | DEM 70% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 61% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | Toss Up | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 64% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 77% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss Up | DEM 52% |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 51% | n/a | Toss Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 57% | n/a | Toss Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 53% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 52% | n/a | REP Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
———————–
as of November 5, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 59% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Smith-D vs Garcia*-R | REP 66% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 77% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 53% |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 60% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 79% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 55% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 57% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 52% |
| Nevada (NV), 1st Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 51% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| New York (NY), 17th Maloney-D vs Lawler-R | DEM 67% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 60% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 66% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 78% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 76% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 52% |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 53% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 55% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 52% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 50% | n/a | REP Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
———————–
as of November 4, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary as of Oct 20, 2022 |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 59% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Smith-D vs Garcia*-R | REP 66% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 77% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 60% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 79% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 55% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 57% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 52% |
| Nevada (NV), 1st Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 51% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| New York (NY), 17th Maloney-D vs Lawler-R | DEM 67% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 60% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 65% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 76% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 53% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 55% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 52% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 50% | n/a | REP Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
————————-
as of October 28, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 58% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Smith-D vs Garcia*-R | REP 63% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 81% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 62% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 79% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 57% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 52% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 56% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 76% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 52% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 56% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 53% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
————————–
as of October 27, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 57% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Garcia*-R vs Smith-D | REP 64% | n/a | REP Tilt | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 81% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 62% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 79% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 51% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 57% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 52% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 56% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 77% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 76% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 52% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 56% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 53% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
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as of October 26, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 57% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | Toss-Up | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 27th Garcia*-R vs Smith-D | REP 63% | n/a | REP Tilt | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 52% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 81% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 61% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 56% | n/a | DEM Tilt | Toss-Up | REP 51% | |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 58% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | DEM 52% |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 57% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 76% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 76% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 77% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 56% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 54% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 52% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
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as of October 25, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | REP 57% | n/a | REP Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| California (CA), 27th Garcia*-R vs Smith-D | REP 59% | n/a | REP Tilt | Toss-Up | REP Leans | DEM 51% |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 81% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 62% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 54% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 57% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 56% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 50.5% |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 73% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 75% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 76% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | REP 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 52% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | DEM 53% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | DEM 52% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
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as of October 24, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | ||||||
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R |  DEM 82% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R |  REP 60% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 52% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 59% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 53% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 72% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 73% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 74% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | DEM 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 54% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-Hernandez-R | REP 52% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | REP 51% |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | REP 55% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
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as of October 23, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| California (CA), 22nd Salas-D vs Valadao-R | ||||||
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 82% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 60% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 52% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 59% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 53% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 72% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 73% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 74% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | DEM 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 54% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-R | REP 52% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | REP 55% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | REP 51% |
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as of October 20, 2022
| State, District *incumbent | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| California (CA), 47th Porter*-D vs Baugh-R | DEM 82% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne*-D vs Nunn-R | REP 60% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids*-D vs Adkins-R | DEM 52% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Michigan (MI), 3rd Scholten-D vs Gibbs-R | DEM 59% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 19th Riley-D vs Molinaro-R | DEM 53% | n/a | DEM Tilt | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| New York (NY), 22nd Conole-D vs Williams-R | REP 72% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| N.Carolina (NC), 13th Nickel-D vs Hines-R | REP 73% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Ohio (OH), 9th Kaptur*-D vs Majewski-R | DEM 74% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | Toss-Up | |
| Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild*-D vs Scheller-R | DEM 51% | n/a | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | REP Leans | |
| Rhode Island (RI), 2nd Magaziner-D vs Fung-R | DEM 54% | n/a | DEM Lean | n/a | REP Leans | |
| Texas (TX), 15th Vallejo-D vs De La Cruz-R | REP 52% | n/a | REP Lean | REP Leans | REP Leans | |
| Virginia (VA), 2nd Luria*-D vs Kiggans-R | REP 55% | n/a | Toss-Up | n/a | REP Leans |
Below are the past projections for the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election – GOVERNOR
Governor – Closely Contested Elections
as of November 6, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Hobbs-D vs Lake-R | REP 62% | REP 82% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Kansas (KS) Kelly-D vs Schmidt-R | DEM 66% | REP 52% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | DEM 50.5% |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 88% | DEM 78% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Sisolak-D vs Lombardo-D | REP 56% | REP 80% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY) Hochul-D vs Zeldin-D | DEM 97% | DEM 79% | DEM Likely | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Oregon (OR) Kotek-D vs Drazan-R | DEM 54% | DEM 55% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Oklahoma (OK) Hofmeister-D vs Stitt-R | REP 91% | n/a | REP Likely | REP Likely | Toss Up | REP 68% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | DEM 51% | REP 63% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 52% |
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as of November 5, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Hobbs-D vs Lake-R | REP 63% | REP 83% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Kansas (KS) Kelly-D vs Schmidt-R | DEM 67% | REP 56% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | DEM 50.5% |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 88% | DEM 75% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Sisolak-D vs Lombardo-D | REP 57% | REP 84% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| New York (NY) Hochul-D vs Zeldin-D | DEM 97% | DEM 79% | DEM Likely | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 51% |
| Oregon (OR) Kotek-D vs Drazan-R | DEM 54% | DEM 52% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Oklahoma (OK) Hofmeister-D vs Stitt-R | REP 91% | n/a | REP Likely | REP Likely | Toss Up | REP 68% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | DEM 50% | REP 71% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up |
———————–
as of November 4, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Hobbs-D vs Lake-R | REP 62% | REP 81% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Kansas (KS) Kelly-D vs Schmidt-R | DEM 61% | REP 56% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | DEM 50.5% |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 88% | DEM 76% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Sisolak-D vs Lombardo-D | REP 54% | REP 82% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 53% |
| Oregon (OR) Kotek-D vs Drazan-R | DEM 50% | REP 62% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Oklahoma (OK) Hofmeister-D vs Stitt-R | REP 93% | n/a | REP Likely | REP Likely | Toss Up | REP 68% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | DEM 55% | REP 66% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up |
————————–
as of October 28, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | William Stickevers -Political Contest Horary | |
| Arizona (AZ) Hobbs-D vs Lake-R | REP 62% | REP 84% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Kansas (KS) Kelly-D vs Schmidt-R | DEM 61% | REP 59% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 88% | DEM 72% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Sisolak-D vs Lombardo-D | REP 54% | REP 70% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Oregon (OR) Kotek-D vs Drazan-R | DEM 50% | REP 58% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | DEM 55% | REP 65% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up |
——————–
as of October 25, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 87% | DEM 70% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Lombardo-R vs Sisolak-D | REP 51% | REP 73% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Oregon (OR) Drazan-R vs Kotek-D | REP 51% | REP 53% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | DEM 54% | REP 66% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up |
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as of October 24, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Michigan (MI) Whitmer-D vs Dixon-R | DEM 87% | DEM 70% | DEM Tilt | DEM Lean | Toss Up | REP 52% |
| Nevada (NV) Lombardo-R vs Sisolak-D | REP 51% | REP 73% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | |
| Oregon (OR) Drazan-R vs Kotek-D | REP 52% | REP 53% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | REP 55% |
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | DEM 54% | REP 66% | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | |
——————————–
as of October 21, 2022:
| Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | CNN Politics | Politico | Real Clear Politics | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Nevada (NV) Lombardo-R vs Sisolak-D | ||||||
| Oregon (OR) Drazan-R vs Kotek-D | REP 55% | |||||
| Wisconsin (WI) Evers-D vs Michels-R | ||||||
These predictions were originally posted on William Stickevers’s blog: https://williamstickevers.blog/astrology-and-politics-2022-u-s-midterm-election-predictions/