Accuracy Track Record for the Electoral College of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election on November 3, 2020:

As of October 20, 2022:

……………………………………………………………………………………… 

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*
and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Final Update November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST

Weekly Update Webinars and Q&A for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election in the
Global Transformation Astrology (GTA) membership

Overview

This page lists the predictions for the Electoral College and Final Outcome of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, as well as predictions for the outcome of the swing states from:

• FiveThirtyEight
• PredictIt
• Politico
• Real Clear Politics
• Political Contest Horary AstroProbability generated by a team of political contest horary astrologers led by mundane astrologer William Stickevers

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*

Each horary question will be focused on a specific race, as well as the outcome of the election.

*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
Margin of Error is +/- 1.9% with a 95% level of confidence.

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Accuracy Track Record 2008-2020:

462 predictions, 395 correct = 86% Accuracy Track Record

• 2020 U.S. Democratic Primary Elections – 78% correct
• 2018 U.S. Midterm “Closely Contested” House and Senate Elections – 81% correct
• 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Outcome- Correct
• 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 92% correct
• 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections – 87% correct
• 2014 U.S. Midterm “Too Close To Call” Elections – 83% correct
• 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 88% correct
• 2010 U.S. Midterm “Toss-Up” Senate and House Elections – 80% correct
• 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Outcome – Correct
• 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 96% correct
• 2008 U.S. Democratic Primary Nomination – Correct
• 2008 U.S. Democratic Primary “Too Close To Call” Elections – 60% correct

Political Contest Horary Team:

• William Stickevers, Team Leader (2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)
• Joyce Lambert (2016, 2018, 2020)
• Alan L. Lin (2018, 2020)
• J. Brown (2020)

Read about the Political Contest Horary Team Astrologers.

Projection Maps
for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election:

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map

as of November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST:

Who will win the presidency?
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
Trump 88%

Political Contest Horary:
FINAL: The consensus Electoral College Map forecast based on the Political Contest Horary inquires of the key battleground states on November 3rd augurs an extremely close set of state contests on November 3rd. Nevada, Nebraska 2nd District, and Nevada move from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine 2nd District move from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania move from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. Minnesota and Nevada move from lean Democrat to Toss-Up. Oregon, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Virginia move from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.

Election bellwether states in the United States are states that vote in alignment with respect to the outcome of presidential elections. The strongest bellwether states are those which back the winning candidate in most elections.

• Ohio – 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.5%), perfect since 1964. A Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
• Florida – 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (91.3%). Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
• Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (89.7%). A Must Win State for Biden.
• Missouri – 3 misses (1956, 2008, 2012) from 1904 on (89.7%). A Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
• New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (88.9%). A Must Win State for Biden.
• Tennessee – 3 misses (1960, 2008, 2012) from 1928 on (87.0%). A Must Win State for Trump.

Note: In elections since 2000, only two states remained 100 percent accurate in forecasting the winner: Florida, and Ohio.

See a Record of Previous 2020 Election Electoral College Projections

Other Projection Maps – as of October 30, 2020:

FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Politico	Real Clear Politics
	Biden: 305 | Trump 233	Biden: 279 | Trump: 181 Toss-Ups: 80	Biden: 216 | Trump: 125 Toss-Ups: 197

See a Record of Previous 2020 Election Electoral College Projections

Final Outcome Prediction
for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election:

Who will win the presidency?

as of November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST

Electoral College State Projections
for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election:

*Battleground States

As of November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST: