2020 Presidential Election – William Stickevers

U.S. ELECTION PREDICTIONS TRACK RECORD

2020 Presidential Election

Electoral College

Predictions by William Stickevers

Accuracy: 92.9%

Total Predictions: 56
Accurate Predictions: 52

Five Thirty Eight:
53/56 accurate predictions, 95% accuracy

PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Accuracy Track Record for the Electoral College of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election on November 3, 2020:

As of October 20, 2022:

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary Team
95% correct	95% correct	93% correct
56 projections	56 projections	56 projections
53 correct	53 correct	52 correct
3 incorrect	3 incorrect	4 incorrect
3 still in contention	3 still in contention	3 still in contention

………………………………………………………………………………………

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*
and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Final Update November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST

Weekly Update Webinars and Q&A for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election in the
Global Transformation Astrology (GTA) membership

Overview

This page lists the predictions for the Electoral College and Final Outcome of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, as well as predictions for the outcome of the swing states from:

FiveThirtyEight
PredictIt
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability generated by a team of political contest horary astrologers led by mundane astrologer William Stickevers

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*

Each horary question will be focused on a specific race, as well as the outcome of the election.

*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
Margin of Error is +/- 1.9% with a 95% level of confidence.

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Accuracy Track Record 2008-2020:

462 predictions, 395 correct = 86% Accuracy Track Record

2020 U.S. Democratic Primary Elections – 78% correct
2018 U.S. Midterm “Closely Contested” House and Senate Elections – 81% correct
2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Outcome- Correct
2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 92% correct
2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections – 87% correct
2014 U.S. Midterm “Too Close To Call” Elections – 83% correct
2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 88% correct
2010 U.S. Midterm “Toss-Up” Senate and House Elections – 80% correct
2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Outcome – Correct
2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 96% correct
2008 U.S. Democratic Primary Nomination – Correct
2008 U.S. Democratic Primary “Too Close To Call” Elections – 60% correct

Political Contest Horary Team:

William Stickevers, Team Leader (2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)
Joyce Lambert (2016, 2018, 2020)
Alan L. Lin (2018, 2020)
J. Brown (2020)

Read about the Political Contest Horary Team Astrologers.

Projection Maps
for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election:

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map

as of November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST:

Who will win the presidency?
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability:
Trump 88%

Political Contest Horary:
FINAL: The consensus Electoral College Map forecast based on the Political Contest Horary inquires of the key battleground states on November 3rd augurs an extremely close set of state contests on November 3rd. Nevada, Nebraska 2nd District, and Nevada move from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine 2nd District move from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania move from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. Minnesota and Nevada move from lean Democrat to Toss-Up. Oregon, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Virginia move from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.

Election bellwether states in the United States are states that vote in alignment with respect to the outcome of presidential elections. The strongest bellwether states are those which back the winning candidate in most elections.

Ohio – 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.5%), perfect since 1964. A Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
Florida – 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (91.3%). Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (89.7%). A Must Win State for Biden.
Missouri – 3 misses (1956, 2008, 2012) from 1904 on (89.7%). A Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (88.9%). A Must Win State for Biden.
Tennessee – 3 misses (1960, 2008, 2012) from 1928 on (87.0%). A Must Win State for Trump.

Note: In elections since 2000, only two states remained 100 percent accurate in forecasting the winner: Florida, and Ohio.

See a Record of Previous 2020 Election Electoral College Projections

Other Projection Maps – as of October 30, 2020:

See a Record of Previous 2020 Election Electoral College Projections

Final Outcome Prediction
for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election:

Who will win the presidency?

as of November 3, 2020 at 2:59pm PST

FiveThirtyEight	PredictIt	Politico	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
✅ Biden 89%	✅ Biden 68%	✅ Biden – Leans	❌ Trump 51% [as of Dec 30 2020] Trump 88% [as of Nov 3 2020]