Prediction Track Record for William Stickevers

U.S. Elections

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Geopolitics & Macro
GTA Membership 

Global Outlook Annual Forecast

Coast To Coast AM

Regulus Financial Astrology

Global Outlook Annual Forecast Predictions

Predictions by William Stickevers in his Annual Global Forecasts since 2017.

This page documents major global developments that were forecast in advance through William Stickevers’ annual Global Outlook webinars and later confirmed by real-world events.

Each year, these forecasts identified high-impact geopolitical, economic, technological, and social trends before they entered mainstream awareness. Rather than reacting to headlines, the analysis focused on escalation risks, structural shifts, and emerging patterns shaping global events.

The sections below correlate those forward-looking predictions with what actually unfolded. In many cases, the outcomes aligned closely with the original forecasts — demonstrating a consistent ability to anticipate global developments ahead of their public recognition.

All predictions shown were delivered publicly prior to the events described.

Global Outlook 2025

Predictions by William Stickevers 
February 12, 2025 

Overall Accuracy: ~73% 
(22 Accurate · 12 Partially Accurate · 6 Not Confirmed) 
March 2025 – January 2026

Geopolitical Escalations — Middle East

  • Forecast (pp. 88, 140)
    Escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict, including direct military confrontation, proxy involvement, oil supply disruptions, and heightened Western military presence. Elevated risk of naval conflict in strategic chokepoints such as the Red Sea.
  • What Happened (Mar 2025 – Jan 2026)
    A 12-day Iran–Israel war erupted in June 2025 involving direct missile and aerial strikes alongside proxy forces (including Hezbollah and the Houthis). Red Sea shipping disruptions intensified following Houthi attacks, prompting U.S. and U.K. naval intervention. Oil prices spiked to approximately $95 per barrel amid renewed hostilities.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated both the direct escalation and the systemic downstream effects, including maritime instability and energy volatility — well before these dynamics became widely acknowledged.

Geopolitical Escalations — Ukraine

  • Forecast (pp. 87, 140)
    A prolonged conflict marked by Russian territorial advances, no near-term resolution, expanded cyber warfare, and the involvement of external actors such as North Korea.
  • What Happened
    Russia captured approximately 4,700 square kilometers through 2025 with no durable resolution. North Korea deployed an estimated 10,000 troops in support roles. Cyberattacks targeting Ukrainian infrastructure increased, while late-2025 ceasefire talks stalled.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The analysis correctly identified duration, escalation vectors, and third-party involvement, including North Korea as a non-obvious wildcard actor.

Geopolitical Escalations — Taiwan / China

  • Forecast (pp. 89, 140, 145)
    Increased Chinese military pressure around Taiwan, disruption to semiconductor supply chains, and escalating U.S.–China economic warfare — without an immediate invasion.
  • What Happened
    China conducted large-scale “Justice Mission 2025” military drills around Taiwan. U.S.–China trade tensions escalated through tariffs and export controls on advanced chips. Semiconductor shortages affected AI and electronics sectors, while near-miss military incidents increased without triggering open conflict.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the pressure-without-invasion strategy that defined 2025, accurately identifying semiconductor dominance as the central leverage point.

Global Security & Cyber Threats

  • Forecast (pp. 91, 135, 139, 145)
    Rapid escalation of cyber warfare, AI-enabled weapons systems, misinformation campaigns, and intensified geopolitical polarization driven by emerging power blocs.
  • What Happened
    Global cyberattacks increased by an estimated 40%, with state-sponsored operations targeting energy and financial systems. AI-driven military capabilities advanced rapidly, while deepfake-enabled misinformation became widespread.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast identified cyber and AI domains as primary battlefields, anticipating the scale and strategic importance of information warfare.

Technological Revolutions — AI & Automation

  • Forecast (pp. 57–58, 69, 76, 98, 114)
    Acceleration of the AI and AGI race, rapid deployment across military and industrial sectors, workforce disruption, and intensified ethical and governance debates.
  • What Happened
    AI adoption surged globally. China released DeepSeek as a major competitor to Western models. Breakthroughs in quantum computing emerged, while declining AI costs accelerated deployment across defense and industry.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the timing, scale, and geopolitical implications of the AI arms race before it became consensus.

Economic Rivalry — United States & China

  • Forecast (pp. 75, 98, 112, 116, 133, 145)
    Renewed trade conflict, aggressive tariffs under a second Trump administration, supply-chain decoupling, and heightened global market volatility.
  • What Happened
    Beginning in April, tariffs ranging from 10–49% were imposed, triggering global trade volatility. Gold reached record highs near $4,503 per ounce, while supply-chain decoupling accelerated, particularly in technology sectors.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated policy direction, timing, and capital-market consequences, linking geopolitical rivalry to tangible financial outcomes.

Political Shifts & Social Upheaval

  • Forecast (pp. 74–77, 112)
    Mass protests, ideological polarization, and generational unrest, with Gen Z emerging as a primary driver of social and political movements.
  • What Happened
    Gen Z-led protests intensified globally. Political upheavals occurred in Nepal and Madagascar, while South Korea entered a constitutional crisis. Polarization deepened across Europe and Asia.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The analysis identified generational leadership dynamics underlying unrest rather than treating protests as isolated events.

Cultural Realignments

  • Forecast (p. 100)
    A shift away from ESG, DEI, and “woke” ideology toward economic realism, traditional values, and cultural recalibration.
  • What Happened
    Major corporations scaled back ESG and DEI initiatives. Entertainment content shifted away from overt ideological messaging, while conservative and nationalist movements gained momentum across the U.S. and Europe.
  • Assessment: 🔵✓ Partially Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated the cultural pendulum shift before it became broadly acknowledged.

Maritime & Energy Disruptions

  • Forecast (pp. 57, 88, 135, 147)
    Rising instability in global maritime chokepoints, particularly the Red Sea, with energy price volatility tied to Middle Eastern conflict.
  • What Happened
    Houthi attacks disrupted Red Sea shipping, forcing the rerouting of approximately 20% of global trade. Insurance costs surged, and oil prices spiked during periods of escalation.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly identified geographic focus, timing, and second-order economic effects of maritime disruption.

This track record reflects a broader, long-term body of work that includes accurate calls on major geopolitical, economic, and technological shifts over multiple decades.

For those seeking forward-looking insight into emerging global pressure points, the Global Outlook 2026 Report applies the same analytical framework to the year ahead.

Global Outlook 2024 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
February 24, 2024

Overall Accuracy: ~86% 
(25 Accurate · 8 Partially Accurate · 2 Not Confirmed) 
March 2024 – March 2025

Geopolitical Escalations — Ukraine–Russia War

  • Forecast
    Escalation of the Ukraine–Russia war with Russia gaining territory; a prolonged war of attrition extending into 2025; NATO preparing for potential direct conflict; heightened nuclear risk; and increasing U.S. actions pushing conditions closer to a broader global war.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Mar 2025)
    Russia achieved limited territorial gains (approximately 1% of Ukrainian territory) while sustaining extremely high casualties, estimated at roughly 1,000 Russian soldiers per day. The conflict remained unresolved and deeply attritional. Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024. North Korean troops began supporting Russian operations in October 2024, suffering heavy losses before withdrawing by February 2025. In March 2025, the U.S. paused military aid under the Trump administration, escalating alliance tensions without triggering direct NATO involvement.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated the war’s attritional structure, Russia’s incremental territorial advances, foreign troop involvement, and U.S. policy shifts that increased geopolitical brinkmanship without tipping into formal NATO war.

Geopolitical Escalations — Middle East Conflicts

  • Forecast
    Major regional escalation centered around the April eclipse period, including U.S.–Iran confrontation, a widening Israel–Hamas–Iran conflict, and disruption of strategic chokepoints such as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Mar 2025)
    Direct Israel–Iran strikes occurred in April and October 2024, marking a significant escalation. The U.S. provided defensive support to Israel. The Assad regime collapsed in December 2024. A phased Gaza ceasefire was initiated in October 2024 with U.S. mediation. Houthi attacks reduced Red Sea shipping by approximately 90%, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified amid expanded U.S. naval presence.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    Escalations aligned closely with eclipse timing, including direct military strikes and maritime disruptions. The forecast correctly anticipated regional destabilization, U.S. involvement, and regime-level power shifts well ahead of mainstream consensus.

Geopolitical Escalations — China–Taiwan Tensions

  • Forecast
    Rising confrontation between China and Taiwan, potential invasion triggers, a heightened probability of conflict comparable to early great-power rivalry, and deepening U.S.–China Thucydides Trap dynamics.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Mar 2025)
    China conducted major Joint Sword military exercises around Taiwan following President Lai’s inauguration in May 2024. Military signaling and rhetoric escalated, though no invasion occurred. U.S. support for Taiwan continued, and strategic competition intensified across military, economic, and technological domains.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately captured escalating brinkmanship without prematurely predicting invasion, reflecting the unstable equilibrium that defined the period.

Economy & Markets — Stock Market Bubble

  • Forecast
    Bubble conditions in U.S. equities, particularly among the Magnificent 7 and Nvidia, driven by AI speculation. High vulnerability to a sharp correction or crash triggered by policy shocks, tariffs, or geopolitical developments, with timing linked to eclipse cycles.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Mar 2025)
    Markets avoided a full crash in 2024 but experienced increasing volatility. A major selloff began April 2, 2025 following the announcement of sweeping U.S. tariffs (“Liberation Day”), triggering global panic selling. The S&P 500 fell sharply, with the Magnificent 7 declining approximately 25% from their highs before rebounding by June 2025.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly identified bubble dynamics, systemic vulnerability, and policy-driven triggers, with timing that aligned closely to the forecast window.

Markets — Gold Price

  • Forecast
    A substantial rise in gold prices into the $2,400–$3,300 range, driven by geopolitical instability, central-bank accumulation, and heightened risk aversion, with major moves expected during late-summer and autumn eclipse cycles.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Dec 2024)
    Gold peaked near $2,785 per ounce in October 2024 and ended the year around $2,693, representing a 27% year-over-year gain. Central banks, including China and India, accumulated gold at record levels amid rising geopolitical risk.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    Both price targets and timing aligned closely with the forecast, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge during systemic instability.

Markets — Bitcoin Price

  • Forecast
    Bitcoin surpassing silver’s market capitalization, surging above $100,000 by late 2024, driven by spot ETF approval and accelerating institutional adoption, with long-term monetary implications.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Dec 2024)
    Bitcoin peaked at $106,142 in December 2024 and ended the year near $93,429, more than doubling from March 2024 levels. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted billions in inflows, Bitcoin surpassed silver’s market capitalization, and institutional participation expanded rapidly.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast was unusually precise in price level, timing, and mechanism, correctly identifying ETFs as the catalyst for institutional-scale adoption.

Technology — Artificial Intelligence Advancements

  • Forecast
    Rapid, non-linear acceleration toward advanced AI systems, including self-improving and agent-based models, major breakthroughs in reasoning and autonomy, and profound productivity and ontological disruption.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Mar 2025)
    Major AI releases included Claude 4, GPT-5, and Gemini 3. Agentic workflows, self-coding systems, and rapid advances in reasoning benchmarks emerged. Physical AI robotics advanced, and AGI thresholds were increasingly approached.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated both the pace and nature of AI acceleration, including structural disruption rather than incremental improvement.

UFO / UAP — Disclosure

  • Forecast
    Accelerated but non-catastrophic disclosure dynamics, including congressional hearings, increased official engagement, rising public awareness, and cumulative ontological shock rather than a single definitive revelation.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – 2025)
    Congressional hearings occurred in November 2024. Pentagon reports were released in March 2024. UAP sightings increased substantially, alongside high-profile drone and airspace investigations. Disclosure remained incremental but persistent.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly emphasized cumulative psychological and cultural impact over dramatic confirmation.

U.S. Presidential Election 2024

  • Forecast
    Visible decline in President Biden’s health leading to withdrawal from the race, rapid Democratic realignment, meaningful third-party influence, heightened volatility around the October eclipse period, and a Trump victory.
  • What Happened (Mar 2024 – Nov 2024)
    Following a poor debate performance in June 2024 and subsequent COVID illness, President Biden withdrew from the race in July 2024 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Donald Trump won the November 2024 election. Third-party candidates influenced turnout dynamics.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast was highly specific and accurate, particularly regarding Biden’s withdrawal and the election outcome, well ahead of mainstream acknowledgment.

Global Outlook 2023 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
January 22, 2023

Overall Accuracy: ~80% 
(21 Accurate · 9 Partially Accurate · 4 Not Confirmed)
March 2023 – March 2024 

Geopolitical Escalations — Ukraine–Russia War

  • Forecast
    Escalation of the Ukraine–Russia war with Russia gaining territory; a prolonged war of attrition extending into 2024; NATO preparing for potential direct conflict; heightened nuclear risk; increasing U.S. actions pushing conditions closer to a broader global war; and a major spring escalation around the April–May eclipse period.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    Russia made gradual territorial gains, including the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024. The war remained unresolved and deeply attritional. Ukraine’s widely anticipated counteroffensive (June–September 2023) stalled without strategic breakthroughs. North Korea began supplying Russia with weapons and personnel support in late 2023. NATO expanded exercises and readiness measures. The U.S. continued military aid while pausing or delaying certain packages in early 2024. Nuclear threats persisted, though no weapons were deployed.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated the attritional nature of the conflict, Russia’s incremental advances, foreign involvement, NATO readiness escalation, and heightened nuclear rhetoric—well before these dynamics became widely normalized.

Geopolitical Escalations — China–Taiwan Tensions

  • Forecast
    Rising confrontation between China and Taiwan, elevated invasion risk signals, intensifying U.S.–China strategic rivalry consistent with Thucydides Trap dynamics, and heightened tensions around eclipse periods.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan in April 2023 following the Tsai Ing-wen–Kevin McCarthy meeting. Military signaling and rhetoric intensified throughout the year, though no invasion occurred. U.S. military and diplomatic support for Taiwan continued. A Biden–Xi summit in November 2023 temporarily eased immediate escalation risks.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured escalating military pressure and strategic rivalry without prematurely predicting invasion, reflecting the unstable but restrained balance that defined the period.

Economy & Markets — Recession and Financial Instability

  • Forecast
    Economic conditions resembling a depression rather than a mild recession; massive deleveraging; systemic banking and liquidity crises; persistent inflation; and the early stages of a broader global financial reset.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    The U.S. avoided a formal recession, posting approximately 2.5% GDP growth. However, a major banking crisis erupted in March 2023 with the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic—the largest banking collapse since 2008. Inflation proved persistent, prompting continued Federal Reserve rate hikes. Emergency liquidity facilities were deployed to stabilize the financial system.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    While a depression did not materialize, the forecast was prescient in identifying systemic banking stress, liquidity crises, and the non-transitory nature of inflation—particularly the precise March 2023 timing.

Markets — Stock Market Bubble

  • Forecast
    An “everything bubble” vulnerable to sharp declines, with crash risk comparable to 1929 or 2008, driven by high interest rates, excessive leverage, and valuation extremes, with potential downside of 35–60%.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    No full market crash occurred. The S&P 500 experienced significant volatility but finished 2023 up approximately 10%, driven largely by AI and mega-cap technology stocks. Banking-sector turmoil in March 2023 triggered sharp but temporary selloffs. Valuation concerns persisted, with cyclically adjusted P/E ratios remaining elevated.
  • Assessment: 🔵✓ Partially Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    While the magnitude of decline did not materialize, the forecast correctly identified extreme fragility and systemic risk, validated by banking-sector shocks and persistent valuation stress.

Markets — Gold Price

  • Forecast
    A substantial rise in gold prices above $2,000, driven by financial instability, geopolitical risk, and aggressive central-bank accumulation.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    Gold rose from approximately $1,829 to over $2,060, representing a gain of roughly 13%. Central banks recorded their largest gold purchases on record amid geopolitical uncertainty and financial stress.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly identified both the price threshold and the macro drivers behind gold’s resurgence.

Markets — Bitcoin Price

  • Forecast
    A major Bitcoin surge acting as a liquidity sponge, driven by institutional adoption and monetary instability, with long-term potential to rival or surpass gold’s role.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    Bitcoin rose from roughly $20,000 to over $42,000, gaining approximately 155%. Institutional interest increased sharply following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated Bitcoin’s explosive rebound and institutional adoption, even if a full “flippening” with gold had not yet occurred.

Technology — Artificial Intelligence Advancements

  • Forecast
    Rapid acceleration toward advanced AI and early AGI-level capabilities, including self-improving systems, exponential growth, and major ontological disruption across work and society.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    GPT-4 launched in March 2023, introducing multimodal capabilities. AI adoption surged globally, with rapid progress in coding assistance, reasoning, and automation. New models, including Grok, expanded the AI ecosystem. Productivity and workflow disruptions accelerated across industries. 
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated both the pace and the societal impact of AI expansion, including its ontological implications rather than treating it as incremental innovation.

Financial Instability — Banking Crisis

  • Forecast
    Major banking and liquidity crises driven by over-leveraged institutions, contagion risk, and systemic fragility within the financial system.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic triggered widespread contagion fears. The FDIC absorbed approximately $31.5 billion in losses. Emergency Federal Reserve lending facilities were introduced to stabilize the system.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast was highly precise in both timing and mechanism, accurately identifying the vulnerability of over-leveraged regional banks.

Geopolitical Escalations — Middle East Conflicts

  • Forecast
    Rising regional instability, heightened energy risk, and disruption of strategic maritime chokepoints.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    The Israel–Hamas war erupted in October 2023. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping escalated, reducing traffic by approximately 50% by year-end. Oil prices experienced increased volatility amid geopolitical risk.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated both the outbreak of conflict and the resulting disruption to energy markets and maritime trade routes.

U.S. Politics — Biden Administration Pressures

  • Forecast
    Mounting pressure on President Biden related to health, cognition, and political stability, with increased scrutiny emerging around eclipse periods.
  • What Happened (Mar 2023 – Mar 2024)
    No major health event occurred in 2023. However, a February 2024 special counsel report raised concerns about President Biden’s memory and cognitive fitness, intensifying political scrutiny and public concern.
  • Assessment: 🔵✓ Partially Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated mounting pressure and credibility erosion ahead of Biden’s eventual withdrawal in 2024, even if the full outcome occurred later.

Global Outlook 2022 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
February 5 and 12, 2022

Overall Accuracy: ~83% 
(25 Accurate · 9 Partially Accurate · 3 Not Confirmed)
March 2022 – March 2023 

Geopolitical Escalations — Ukraine–Russia War

  • Forecast
    Escalation of conflict in Ukraine, particularly in Donbas and Crimea, tied to the U.S. Pluto return. Elevated risk of a major war or invasion, NATO expansion provoking Russia, and the possibility of a broader European conflict.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, escalating through March with major sieges including Mariupol. Fighting concentrated heavily in eastern Ukraine throughout 2022. NATO significantly expanded military aid, intelligence support, and exercises without deploying troops directly. Russia announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in September 2022. Nuclear threats and rhetoric persisted throughout the year.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated both the timing and structure of the conflict—escalation centered in eastern Ukraine, NATO brinkmanship short of direct war, and sustained attritional warfare—before these dynamics dominated global awareness.

Geopolitical Escalations — China–Taiwan Tensions

  • Forecast
    Rising confrontation between China and Taiwan, with crisis-level tensions comparable to historical flashpoints, and deepening U.S.–China Thucydides Trap dynamics.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    Tensions escalated sharply following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, dramatically increasing military signaling. U.S. military and diplomatic support for Taiwan expanded, though no invasion occurred.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated heightened brinkmanship and military signaling well before the Pelosi visit triggered a visible escalation, accurately capturing the emerging U.S.–China strategic standoff.

Economy & Markets — Inflation Surge

  • Forecast
    Persistent, elevated inflation driven by structural imbalances, energy shocks, and unrealistic economic policies, with markets peaking amid constrained production.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022—the highest level in over 40 years—driven largely by energy, food, and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Ukraine war. The Federal Reserve began aggressive interest-rate hikes in March 2022.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately identified both the severity and persistence of inflation before it became the dominant global economic concern.

Economy & Markets — Recession and Systemic Stress Signals

  • Forecast
    Economic conditions resembling a depression-like environment rather than a standard recession, driven by bursting asset bubbles, tightening financial conditions, and systemic stress.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    The U.S. avoided a formal recession in 2022, but economic slowdown fears intensified. The yield curve inverted, financial conditions tightened sharply, and early banking stress emerged by early 2023, setting the stage for later instability.
  • Assessment: 🔵✓ Partially Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    While no depression occurred, the forecast correctly anticipated systemic stress signals, inversion dynamics, and heightened vulnerability under aggressive monetary tightening.

Markets — Stock Market Volatility

  • Forecast
    A sharp downturn and extreme volatility in equity markets, driven by rising interest rates, inflation, and the unwinding of an “everything bubble.”
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    The S&P 500 declined significantly during 2022, finishing the year down approximately 19%, and remained volatile into early 2023. Markets reacted sharply to rate hikes, inflation data, and geopolitical developments.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the volatility and downside pressure accurately, even if the most extreme crash scenarios did not fully materialize.

Markets — Gold Price

  • Forecast
    A significant rise in gold prices above $2,000 amid geopolitical instability, inflation, and safe-haven demand.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    Gold surged above $2,000 in spring 2022, peaking near $2,050 in May, before consolidating amid rising interest rates. Prices remained elevated relative to pre-war levels.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated both the breakout above $2,000 and the geopolitical drivers behind gold’s surge.

U.S. Politics — 2022 Midterm Elections

  • Forecast
    A lunar eclipse coinciding with the 2022 midterm elections, producing uncertainty, reversals, and unexpectedly close outcomes rather than a decisive shift in power.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    The U.S. midterm elections occurred on November 8, 2022, the day of a total lunar eclipse. Republicans narrowly gained control of the House, while Democrats retained the Senate. The anticipated “red wave” failed to materialize.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately identified eclipse timing and the absence of a decisive electoral mandate, aligning with the surprising narrow outcomes.

Geopolitical Escalations — Middle East and Energy Volatility

  • Forecast
    Rising regional instability and energy crises driven by geopolitical conflict, with spillover effects across global markets.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    Oil prices spiked to approximately $120 per barrel in March 2022 following the Ukraine invasion. Energy supply disruptions reverberated globally, affecting Middle Eastern dynamics and contributing to inflationary pressure.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated energy volatility as a systemic consequence of geopolitical escalation.

Social Unrest — Populist Resistance and Protest Movements

  • Forecast
    A surge in populist resistance, backlash against authority, and breakdown of prior social and political norms.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    The Freedom Convoy protests in Canada peaked in early 2022 and influenced similar movements internationally. Widespread anti-war protests followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022 triggered nationwide demonstrations.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the broad rise in resistance to authority and institutional trust erosion as pandemic-era controls faded.

Public Health — Collapse of the COVID Narrative

  • Forecast
    A rapid collapse of the COVID-centric public narrative, replaced by focus on war, inflation, and political instability.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    By spring 2022, many countries began lifting COVID mandates and restrictions. Public attention shifted sharply toward the Ukraine war, inflation, and economic instability. The WHO formally ended the global health emergency in May 2023.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated the timing and nature of the narrative shift away from pandemic dominance.

Technology — Space Exploration Milestones

  • Forecast
    Renewed focus on space exploration, with eclipse cycles echoing historical lunar milestones and major missions returning to prominence.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    NASA’s Artemis I mission launched in November 2022 and successfully completed an uncrewed lunar orbit in December 2022, marking humanity’s return to deep lunar exploration since Apollo.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated the symbolic and strategic resurgence of lunar exploration aligned with historical cycles.

Geopolitical Events — High-Profile Political Assassinations

  • Forecast
    A recurrence of themes associated with political violence and assassinations during eclipse cycles reminiscent of 1968.
  • What Happened (Mar 2022 – Mar 2023)
    Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated in July 2022, sending shockwaves through global politics. Other high-profile political violence incidents occurred throughout the year.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast identified a resurgence of politically destabilizing violence consistent with historical eclipse patterns.

Global Outlook 2021 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
February 6, 2021

Overall Accuracy: ~81% 
(23 Accurate · 9 Partially Accurate · 4 Not Confirmed)
March 2021 – March 2022 

Geopolitical Escalations — Ukraine–Russia Tensions

  • Forecast
    Rising tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO driven by NATO expansion and broader European instability, increasing the risk of a major conflict in Eastern Europe.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    Russia began massing troops near Ukraine’s borders as early as April 2021. Military pressure and brinkmanship escalated throughout the year. NATO increased exercises, intelligence sharing, and military assistance to Ukraine. While no invasion occurred in 2021, the buildup culminated in Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated escalation dynamics and NATO–Russia brinkmanship well before the conflict entered mainstream focus, capturing the pre-war phase that directly preceded the 2022 invasion.

Economy & Markets — Uneven COVID Recovery and Supply-Chain Stress

  • Forecast
    A prolonged and uneven global recovery from COVID, marked by downside risks from viral mutations, supply-chain disruptions, and delayed return to pre-pandemic economic levels.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    Global GDP rebounded strongly in aggregate but unevenly across regions. The Delta variant emerged in mid-2021, disrupting reopenings and supply chains. Many economies did not fully return to pre-pandemic output levels until mid-to-late 2022.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly rejected a smooth “V-shaped” recovery narrative and identified mutation-driven setbacks and uneven growth as defining features of the period.

Public Health — COVID Variants and Narrative Transition

  • Forecast
    Emergence of new COVID variants undermining vaccine optimism, followed by an eventual collapse of the COVID-dominant narrative as attention shifted toward economic and geopolitical instability.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    Variants including Beta and Delta drove renewed waves of infection and policy reversals in 2021. By early 2022, many governments began lifting mandates, while public focus shifted toward inflation, supply shortages, and rising geopolitical tensions.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured both the resurgence of pandemic disruption and the subsequent narrative pivot away from COVID as the dominant global concern.

Economy & Markets — Financial Repression, Reflation, and Inflation

  • Forecast
    Prolonged suppression of interest rates to manage debt loads, combined with reflationary policies that would ultimately fuel inflationary pressures.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    Central banks kept interest rates near zero throughout 2021 while deploying massive stimulus. Inflation surged sharply by late 2021, reaching multi-decade highs. The Federal Reserve did not begin raising rates until March 2022.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately identified financial repression and reflation as precursors to the inflation shock that followed stimulus-heavy recovery efforts.

Economy & Markets — Market Peaks and Volatility

  • Forecast
    Equity markets reaching significant highs amid optimism, followed by increased volatility and disruption linked to inflation, tightening policy expectations, and systemic stress.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted strong gains in 2021, reaching record highs by late 2021 and early 2022. Market volatility increased sharply as inflation surged and rate hikes became inevitable.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly identified the timing of market peaks and the transition from optimism to instability.

Geopolitical & Social Dynamics — Civil Unrest and Institutional Stress

  • Forecast
    Heightened civil unrest, resistance to authority, and destabilizing revelations exposing institutional weaknesses and corruption.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    Widespread protests occurred across Europe and North America related to pandemic restrictions. The Pandora Papers (October 2021) exposed global financial corruption. Political polarization intensified, particularly in the United States.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated a surge in unrest and revelations undermining institutional trust during a period of systemic strain.

Geopolitical Power Shifts — U.S. Hegemony Under Pressure

  • Forecast
    The United States entering a transformative phase marked by internal polarization, decentralization pressures, and challenges to its post-World War II hegemonic role, without immediate collapse.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a symbolic shift in global posture. Alliance realignments (e.g., AUKUS) and rising competition with China and Russia underscored growing multipolar dynamics.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured hegemonic transition pressures and strategic recalibration without overstating collapse.

Social & Political Unrest — Populist and Anti-Establishment Movements

  • Forecast
    Resurgence of populist movements and resistance to centralized authority, echoing earlier cycles of social upheaval.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    Protests erupted in multiple countries, including Colombia and Cuba in 2021. Labor activism, unionization efforts, and anti-inequality movements gained renewed momentum globally.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated rising grassroots resistance and social mobilization during a period of institutional strain.

Technology & Exploration — Space Milestones

  • Forecast
    Renewed focus on space exploration aligned with historical cycles, bringing lunar missions back into prominence.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    NASA advanced the Artemis program, culminating in the successful Artemis I uncrewed lunar mission later in 2022.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast identified the symbolic return to lunar exploration ahead of renewed public and political attention.

Political Violence — High-Profile Shocks

  • Forecast
    An increase in destabilizing political violence echoing earlier historical cycles.
  • What Happened (Mar 2021 – Mar 2022)
    The assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022 shocked the international community, underscoring rising political instability.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated a resurgence of high-impact political violence consistent with broader systemic stress.

Global Outlook 2020 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
February 2 and 16, 2020

Overall Accuracy: ~85% 
(30 Accurate · 9 Partially Accurate · 3 Not Confirmed)
March 2020 – March 2021  

Geopolitical Escalations — Russia Political Reconfiguration

  • Forecast
    Sweeping constitutional changes and political reconfiguration in Russia, including government resignation as a reboot ahead of future elections, with power diversification alongside continued presidential centrality.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    Constitutional amendments proposed in January 2020 were approved via referendum in July 2020. The government resigned in January 2020. The changes enabled Putin to potentially extend rule while also adjusting parliamentary structures and succession-related mechanics.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated both the timing and structure of the political reboot—constitutional changes paired with government resignation—before implementation and normalization.

Geopolitical Escalations — Russia Economic Stress and Oil Shock

  • Forecast
    Russia facing economic strain driven by low oil prices and sanctions, with weak growth and compounding demographic headwinds.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    Russia’s economy contracted in 2020 amid the COVID shock and oil-price collapse. Oil prices crashed sharply in spring 2020, and Russia’s production was constrained through OPEC+ cuts. Demographic decline accelerated, worsened by pandemic impacts.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly identified Russia’s vulnerability to an oil-driven shock and broader economic stress, including compounding demographic drag.

Geopolitical Escalations — Russia Opposition and Internal Unrest

  • Forecast
    Amplified political opposition placing the Kremlin under rising internal pressure, increasing the risk of unrest and crackdowns.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    Alexei Navalny was poisoned in August 2020 and arrested in January 2021, sparking nationwide protests and an intensified crackdown on opposition activity.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated a major opposition flashpoint and escalating internal confrontation consistent with the Navalny crisis and its aftermath.

Geopolitical Escalations — Iran Nuclear Escalation and Regional Disruption

  • Forecast
    Iran moving further toward nuclear development, degrading relations with Europe, deepening reliance on China and Russia, and increasing disruptive regional behavior through proxies.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    Iran escalated enrichment activity and reduced compliance measures, including enrichment to 20% in early 2021 and constraints on international inspections. Iran-backed proxy actions remained a persistent destabilizing factor in Iraq and the broader region.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly captured both the nuclear trajectory and the geopolitical alignment pattern, alongside continuing proxy destabilization.

Geopolitical Escalations — Hong Kong Crackdown and Economic Fallout

  • Forecast
    A sustained Hong Kong crisis marked by political impasse, disruptions, and severe economic consequences, especially for retail and business activity.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    The National Security Law was imposed in July 2020, leading to arrests and a rapid constriction of political space. Economic activity—especially retail—suffered sharply during 2020 amid COVID and political tightening.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated both the persistence of the crisis and the economic consequences that followed the crackdown.

Geopolitical Escalations — North Korea Provocations

  • Forecast
    North Korea engaging in provocative actions to maintain internal control and project disruption internationally.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    North Korea conducted missile tests and dramatically escalated tensions with South Korea, including destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office in June 2020.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated escalatory provocations aligned with North Korea’s pattern of internal control through external disruption.

Geopolitical Escalations — Europe Brexit Negotiation Crisis

  • Forecast
    Brexit negotiations hardening into a major crisis point, with the UK hitting a wall with Brussels and market attention rising as talks turned confrontational.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    Negotiations remained tense throughout 2020 and culminated in a last-minute trade deal in December 2020. Early 2021 saw disruptions and friction as new rules took effect, compounded by pandemic-era strain.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated negotiation hardening and a high-stakes resolution window, followed by disruption during implementation.

Geopolitical Escalations — India Unrest and Government Pressure

  • Forecast
    Major national unrest in India producing political pressure and potential policy reversals.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    The farmers’ protest movement escalated into a major national crisis beginning in late 2020 and continued through early 2021, placing sustained pressure on the government and contributing to eventual policy reversal dynamics.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated mass unrest as a defining internal destabilizer in India.

Public Health — Severe Virus Impact in Specific Regions

  • Forecast
    Major virus impacts accelerating exponentially in parts of South and Southeast Asia, including India and Indonesia.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    India experienced a catastrophic COVID surge in spring 2021. Other regional waves hit Indonesia and surrounding areas during 2020–2021, with significant public health strain.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast identified the geographic pattern of severe regional escalation before these waves peaked.

Geopolitical Escalations — U.S.–China Strategic Conflict (Non-Kinetic)

  • Forecast
    Escalating U.S.–China conflict centered on technology, cyber, and strategic competition, with risk of broader confrontation increasing even without immediate war.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    U.S.–China rivalry intensified across trade, technology restrictions, and geopolitical posturing. Cybersecurity escalated into a core national-security battleground, and military signaling increased in areas like the South China Sea.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly emphasized the domain of conflict—tech and cyber competition—as the primary escalation channel rather than conventional war.

U.S. Politics — 2020 Election Volatility and Decisive Swing States

  • Forecast
    A highly polarized and volatile U.S. election with serious legitimacy dispute risk, and decisive outcomes hinging on specific swing states, particularly Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    The 2020 election produced contested narratives and extreme polarization, culminating in the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were decisive in determining the winner and flipped relative to 2016.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    This was unusually specific and accurate: it anticipated both the volatility dynamics and the decisive geographic map.

Economy & Markets — Manufacturing Shock, Volatility, and Policy Dovishness

  • Forecast
    A severe economic shock producing manufacturing contraction, extreme market volatility, and aggressive central bank dovishness and liquidity intervention.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    The global economy entered a sharp recession in early 2020. U.S. unemployment spiked dramatically in spring 2020. Market volatility surged to historic levels. The Federal Reserve cut rates to near zero and implemented major liquidity support programs.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated the triad: economic contraction, extreme volatility, and aggressive monetary intervention, matching the defining macro pattern of 2020.

Economy & Markets — Equity Melt-Up After Shock

  • Forecast
    A sharp equity recovery (“melt-up”) following crisis conditions, driven by liquidity support and policy response.
  • What Happened (Mar 2020 – Mar 2021)
    Following the March 2020 crash, U.S. equities rebounded sharply through 2020 and into early 2021, supported by monetary stimulus, fiscal spending, and risk-on positioning.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the counterintuitive sequence that defined 2020: crash → massive intervention → rapid equity recovery.

Global Outlook 2019 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
February 2, 2019 

Overall Accuracy: ~87% 
(26 Accurate · 7 Partially Accurate · 2 Not Confirmed)
March 2019 – March 2020

Geopolitical Escalations — U.S.–Iran Collision Course

  • Forecast
    The U.S. and Iran move onto an escalating collision course under U.S.-led sanctions. Iran’s government does not collapse, but the economy weakens sharply. Iran retaliates through Persian Gulf vessel harassment, missile activity, nuclear program escalation, cyber operations, and proxy warfare—especially through Syria—raising risk of direct confrontation.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    The U.S. “maximum pressure” sanctions tightened and Iran escalated responses. Tanker seizures and maritime incidents increased in 2019, including the seizure of a British-flagged tanker in July 2019. A major strike hit Saudi Aramco facilities in September 2019 (widely attributed to Iran or Iran-backed forces). The U.S. assassinated Qasem Soleimani on January 3, 2020; Iran responded with missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq on January 8, 2020. Iran exceeded nuclear limits and escalated enrichment activity. Cyber operations and proxy dynamics remained central to the confrontation.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast was unusually specific about how escalation would unfold—maritime pressure, missiles, nuclear escalation, cyber, and proxies—and those exact channels defined the U.S.–Iran confrontation leading into 2020.

Geopolitical Escalations — Iran Economic Contraction

  • Forecast
    Iran enters a sharper recession in 2019 with meaningful GDP contraction despite partial financial support channels through China via oil sales and alternative payment methods.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    Iran’s economy contracted significantly in 2019 under sanctions pressure, with oil exports reduced sharply. China continued limited Iranian oil purchasing and indirect mechanisms persisted, but they did not prevent deeper recession dynamics.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated the direction and severity: deep contraction despite partial workarounds, rather than collapse or stabilization.

Geopolitical Escalations — Syria Remains Fragmented and Unresolved

  • Forecast
    Syria remains fragmented because the interests of Russia, Iran, Turkey, and local factions diverge. No meaningful settlement emerges; instead, semi-autonomous zones and proxy control persist, with intermittent escalations rather than resolution.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    Syria remained divided. Turkey launched “Operation Peace Spring” in October 2019 targeting Kurdish-held areas. Russia increased influence through coordination and patrols. Iran-backed forces remained active. ISIS remnants persisted. A March 2020 ceasefire reduced some fighting in Idlib, but no durable resolution was achieved.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately captured the durable reality: fragmentation and proxy governance, not closure—matching how Syria evolved through 2019–2020.

Economy & Markets — Emerging Market Currency Crisis Continuation

  • Forecast
    Continuation of the 2018-style emerging-market currency meltdowns, driven by overborrowing, overspending, and confidence loss in currencies as stores of value—especially in vulnerable states.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    Severe currency and debt stress persisted across key emerging markets including Argentina, Turkey, and Lebanon, with sharp devaluations and capital flight dynamics continuing into late 2019 and early 2020.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated a continuation of the currency crisis pattern rather than a reset back to stability before COVID amplified global stress.

Economy & Markets — China Slowdown, Property Cooling, and Debt Pressure

  • Forecast
    China faces slowing growth, property-sector cooling, and rising pressure from corporate debt maturities and internal reform dynamics.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    China’s growth slowed into 2019, with ongoing efforts to manage debt and shadow banking. Property indicators cooled relative to prior years, and debt pressure remained a persistent constraint. These dynamics set the stage for later, larger property and debt issues.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast flagged the correct fault lines early: property cooling and debt maturity pressure—issues that later became central to China’s multi-year slowdown.

Geopolitical Escalations — China and Russia Back Iran Against U.S. Pressure

  • Forecast
    Iran is backed geopolitically by China and Russia, including workarounds to bypass dollar-based pressure through alternative arrangements and sanctions evasion mechanisms.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    China and Russia continued to provide diplomatic backing and maintain channels with Iran despite U.S. sanctions pressure. China continued limited Iranian oil imports and various mechanisms to reduce exposure to U.S.-controlled financial channels remained in play.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated not only pressure on Iran, but also the alignment response: Iran leaning harder on China/Russia channels rather than capitulating.

Global Shock — A Watershed, “Unexpected” Systemic Event

  • Forecast
    A watershed year featuring a major unexpected or unbelievable global event that hits major nations, institutions, and leaders unprepared, triggering systemic disruption.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    COVID-19 emerged in late 2019 and was declared a global pandemic in March 2020, triggering unprecedented lockdowns, economic shutdowns, and large-scale emergency policy responses worldwide.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    This forecast accurately captured the shape of what happened: an unforeseen systemic shock that forced rapid adaptation and crisis leadership across the world.

Economy & Markets — Liquidity Stress and Emergency Liquidity Injection

  • Forecast
    A liquidity stress event and/or forced liquidity injection response consistent with “crisis mechanics,” similar in pattern to prior financial stress cycles.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    The repo market crisis in September 2019 triggered major Federal Reserve liquidity injections. In March 2020, central banks launched massive emergency liquidity programs and QE responses as markets seized during the initial COVID shock.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated both the liquidity stress and the policy response pattern (emergency liquidity injections), which defined late 2019 and early 2020 market mechanics.

Resource Conflict and Supply Shock Dynamics

  • Forecast
    Escalating conflict over resources and economic leverage (energy, trade, supply chains), intensifying competition and stress across global systems.
  • What Happened (Mar 2019 – Mar 2020)
    The U.S.–China trade conflict continued to shape global trade dynamics. In March 2020, an oil price war (Russia–Saudi) contributed to extreme market stress. COVID triggered supply shortages and scramble dynamics across critical goods and logistics.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the real pattern: resource leverage becomes a primary escalation channel, and it intensified materially as the world entered the COVID shock.

Global Outlook 2018 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
January 14, 2018 

Overall Accuracy: ~84% 
(24 Accurate · 10 Partially Accurate · 4 Not Confirmed)
March 2018 – March 2019

Geopolitical Escalations — Russia: Protests and Reelection Pressure

  • Forecast
    President Putin faces unusually high levels of protest activity and public demonstrations during an election year, making the period politically tense even if he retains power.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    Putin was reelected on March 18, 2018 amid opposition boycotts and protest activity, including demonstrations associated with Alexei Navalny’s movement. Large-scale protests continued later in 2018, particularly around pension reform.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated that the reelection year would be marked by significant internal unrest and demonstrations rather than a quiet, uncontested political environment.

Geopolitical Escalations — Russia Aligns More Closely with China

  • Forecast
    Russia deepens strategic alignment with China as part of a broader effort to counter U.S. influence and weaken U.S.-led hegemony.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    Russia–China ties strengthened materially through expanded military and economic coordination, including major joint activity such as the Vostok 2018 exercises and deeper cooperation amid Western sanctions pressure.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the direction of geopolitical realignment: Russia accelerating cooperation with China in a way that visibly reinforced a counter-U.S. axis.

Geopolitical Escalations — NATO–Russia Tensions Intensify in Eastern Europe

  • Forecast
    Military activity accelerates across Eastern Europe and the Baltic region, with major NATO and Russian exercises increasing the risk of escalation and miscalculation.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    NATO and Russia both conducted major military exercises and increased readiness. Trident Juncture (October 2018) became the largest NATO exercise since the Cold War, while Russian activity and aerial/sea intercept dynamics remained elevated.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated that the year would feature accelerated military operations and high-profile exercises signaling heightened NATO–Russia tension.

Geopolitical Escalations — Ukraine Destabilization Linked to U.S. Lethal Aid

  • Forecast
    U.S. lethal weapons sales to Ukraine increase destabilization risk, prompting Russia to respond and raising the likelihood of new flashpoints—even without a full-scale war.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    The U.S. approved and delivered Javelin anti-tank missiles in 2018. In November 2018, Russia seized Ukrainian naval vessels during the Kerch Strait incident, triggering a major escalation and martial law in parts of Ukraine.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated the causal pattern: lethal aid raises escalation risk and Russia responds with a destabilizing flashpoint event.

Geopolitical Escalations — Japan Accelerates Rearmament and Strategic Posture Shift

  • Forecast
    Japan accelerates militarization and moves closer to abandoning post–World War II pacifist constraints, expanding defense capabilities and strategic posture.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    Japan increased defense spending and expanded capabilities, including decisions to convert Izumo-class ships to aircraft carrier operations and intensified debate around revising Article 9. Strategic discussions about advanced deterrence capabilities increased amid China and North Korea concerns.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the real shift: Japan’s posture moved further from strict pacifism toward a more assertive defense orientation, expressed through budgets, procurement, and constitutional debate.

Geopolitical Escalations — Northeast Asia Near-Incident Escalation

  • Forecast
    A near-incident involving Japan, South Korea, and/or China escalates tensions toward a possible skirmish, driven by disputed airspace/maritime operations and military signaling.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    Regional tensions rose through a series of military signaling events. A major flashpoint occurred in December 2018 during the Japan–South Korea “radar lock-on” dispute, alongside ongoing airspace and maritime friction in the region.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated the form of escalation—near-incident conflict risk triggered by military signaling and contested operational zones.

Economy & Markets — Financial Volatility and Currency/Banking Shifts

  • Forecast
    A period of heightened financial volatility and structural shifts in currencies, banking, and the use of money, including destabilizing moves in speculative or emerging financial instruments.
  • What Happened (Mar 2018 – Mar 2019)
    Markets experienced significant volatility, including the deep crypto downturn culminating in late 2018 (“crypto winter”) and broader stress across risk assets as financial conditions tightened and macro uncertainty rose.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast accurately anticipated a meaningful volatility regime shift rather than continued smooth expansion, with visible disruption in speculative financial markets.

Global Outlook 2017 Webinar

Predictions by William Stickevers 
January 1, 2017 

Overall Accuracy: ~82% 
(20 Accurate · 8 Partially Accurate · 4 Not Confirmed)
March 2017 – March 2018

Geopolitical & Social Shifts — Uranus–Pluto Alignment Unfolding

  • Forecast
    The long-running Uranus–Pluto cycle (active since 2007) reaches a critical phase in 2017, producing major shifts in global power structures, social movements, economic tensions, and geopolitical escalation.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    2017 saw intensified geopolitical and social stress: North Korea escalated missile and ICBM tests, triggering a global nuclear crisis narrative; major political realignments occurred through U.S. foreign policy shifts; and large-scale social movements emerged.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly framed 2017 as a culmination year within a longer destabilizing cycle, rather than an isolated event year—matching the convergence of geopolitical, social, and economic stressors.

Geopolitical Escalations — North Korea Nuclear Crisis

  • Forecast
    Escalation in military and nuclear tensions involving North Korea, with heightened risk of miscalculation and global confrontation.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    North Korea conducted multiple missile and ICBM tests in 2017, including launches in July and November. The crisis dominated global headlines and raised fears of military conflict involving the United States and regional allies.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated a major escalation phase in the Korean Peninsula well before tensions peaked and entered mainstream panic narratives.

Geopolitical Power Shifts — U.S. Foreign Policy Realignment

  • Forecast
    Major shifts in U.S. global posture reflecting declining multilateralism and increased unilateral decision-making, contributing to broader geopolitical realignments.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    The U.S. withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord (June 2017), recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (December 2017), and pursued an “America First” doctrine that disrupted established alliances and norms.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly anticipated a structural shift in U.S. global behavior that reshaped diplomatic and geopolitical dynamics.

Social & Cultural Transformation — Mass Social Reckoning

  • Forecast
    Large-scale cultural and social upheavals tied to power dynamics, accountability, and decentralization of authority.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    The #MeToo movement erupted in October 2017, rapidly transforming conversations around power, gender, and institutional accountability across politics, media, and business worldwide.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast captured the emergence of a systemic social reckoning, not just isolated protests—one that had lasting cultural and institutional impact.

Economy & Markets — Extreme Financial and Asset Volatility

  • Forecast
    Radical shifts in financial markets, currencies, and asset behavior, including speculative excesses followed by sharp corrections.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    Bitcoin surged from roughly $1,000 in early 2017 to nearly $20,000 by December before collapsing sharply in early 2018. Equity markets reached record highs in January 2018, followed by a sudden correction in February.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated volatility driven by speculative dynamics rather than linear growth, correctly identifying instability beneath apparent market strength.

Economy & Markets — Transformation in Money and Resource Systems

  • Forecast
    Structural changes in how money, resources, and value are perceived and exchanged, including challenges to traditional financial frameworks.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    Cryptocurrencies entered mainstream awareness; Bitcoin futures launched in December 2017; governments and regulators began responding to decentralized financial technologies. Energy and commodity markets also shifted amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast correctly identified 2017 as a turning point where alternative financial systems moved from fringe to global relevance.

Geopolitical & Regional Instability — Fragmentation and Independence Movements

  • Forecast
    Increased regional fragmentation and sovereignty challenges within established political entities.
  • What Happened (Mar 2017 – Mar 2018)
    Catalonia’s independence referendum in October 2017 triggered a constitutional crisis in Spain and raised broader concerns about separatism within Europe.
  • Assessment: ✅ Accurate
  • Why This Stands Out
    The forecast anticipated rising centrifugal pressures within existing political unions, not just state-to-state conflict.
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