According to the Associated Press more than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year. About 74 percent of economic forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II, to end in the third quarter of 2009. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and NABE forecasters say the recession will end later this year, barring any new shocks to the economy.
However many consumers and investors are skeptical of such optimistic forecast. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 1,500 adults for May 27th state that 79% believe that the U.S. economy in a recession with only 8% stating no, and 14% unsure. Another survey showed that 57% of consumers rated the U.S. economy as poor with fewer than 10% saying it is good, or excellent. Finally the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 58% say the nation is moving down the wrong track.
So the question is “Will the U.S. recession end by the end of the third quarter of 2009 as predicted by most economists”?