By the close of 2010 it will become clear that the additional 30,000 troops deployed by the Obama Administration (bringing the total number of American troops in the country to 100,000) will be insufficent to counter an increasingly confident Taliban insurgency operating deep inside of Northern Pakistan. In the face of mounting American casualties and lack of faith in Karziai’s Afghan government, the Obama Administration will face increasing criticism with voters, the media, and even members within his own party over the overly-optimistic and unrealistic timetable for training the Afghan army and police (currently, the Afghan army has a loss rate of about 25% of its members trained by the U.S. and its NATO allies, the bulk of whom just walk away) to take over the security of Afghanistan within 18 months. (December 3, 2009)
For more 2010 predictions (so far) and to read my other predictions for 2009, visit my website.
