Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, many progressive economists in both academia and on Wall Street have recognized the brilliant insight of Soviet Economist Nikolai Kondratiev ( pronounced “Kon-DRA-tee-eff”), and accordingly there have been many reports, articles, theses and books written on the subject of this “cyclical” phenomenon. An influential essay, written by Professor W. Thompson of Indiana University, has indicated that K-Waves have influenced world technological development since the 900s. His thesis states that “modern” economic development commenced in approximately 930 A.D. (during the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of 928) in the Sung province of China, and he propounds that since this date there have been 18 K-Waves since, lasting on average 60 years.
What most mundane astrologers continue to overlook is that the K-Wave is a 60-year cycle (+/- a year or so) coincides closely with Jupiter-Saturn Synodic Cycle, composed of four 15-year internal phase cycles that are characterized as seasons: Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter:
• Spring phase: A new factor of production, good economic times, rising inflation.
• Summer phase: Hubristic ‘peak’ war followed by societal doubts and double-digit inflation.
• Autumn phase: The financial fix of inflation leads to a credit boom which creates a false plateau of prosperity that ends in a speculative bubble.
• Winter phase: Excess capacity worked off by massive debt repudiation, commodity deflation and economic depression. A ‘trough’ war breaks psychology of doom and gloom.
The chart below best summarizes the generally accepted phases since 1782 (based on the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction) for the United States. Note the significant wars that accompanied the recession (price peak) and depression (trough) phase. Also note the tag name for the Autumn periods that were characterized by massive debt growth and speculative bubbles.
If Kondratiev was right about the 60 +/- super-cycles, we still have another 6 years of deflationary downturn and economic depression that commenced in 2007 before we hit bottom.
The Barbault Planetary Cyclic Index (graph below) is the sum of all the angular distances between the pairs of the outer planets, from Jupiter through Pluto. The Cyclic Index has proven to be one of the most accurate predictive tools for mundane astrologers for determining global economic and political stability.
During the Cardinal Grand Cross Alignment in April, the Barbault Planetary Cycle Index began its long steady decline halfway through the Kondratiev winter K-Wave that commenced in the year 2007. The Barbault Cyclic Index will continue to decline until it reaches its baseline trough in 2020 – 2022, during the Saturn-Pluto conjunction, indicating that we are heading into dangerous and perilous period. In all probability we will likely see an acceleration and intensification of economic contraction that will move the nation from a “recession” to a “depression” phase in the second half of 2015 (during the waning of Jupiter-Saturn square) that will last until approximately 2020-2022.
3 thoughts on “Jupiter-Saturn Synodic Cycle and the Kondratiev Wave”
Interesting article…I agree that 2020 will be a very bad year for economics and finances, especially for America, and that bad news concerning such matters will visit us more and more often until then. But I also still believe that such troubles, combined with America’s impulse to play god of our world and the geostrategic follies that her hubris spawns, will lead to America’s doom. She just will not stop harassing China or provoking Russia. They will stomp on her at some point, possibly in the autumn of 2020, because she will lash out at them for her own foolishness. Whatever the case, I seriously doubt she will survive until the dawn of 2025…By the way, she made a fatal mistake this spring by provoking Russia and harassing China. And so, in April, Russia and China finally decided they need to work together to make sure she fails to subdue or destroy them on her way to seizing total control of our world….
The kondratieff cycle is tricky, b/c it’s periodicity has been measured between 45-60 years. So, cycle theorists refer to it as a “wave” more than a cycle. Unlike traditional cycles or astrological transits, waves don’t have easily defined turning points.
The best explanation of how to measure and anticipate turning points in these waves is to think of them as composite cycles. 28, 36, and 44 years. More at http://kalarhythms.org/
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