U.S. ELECTION PREDICTIONS TRACK RECORD
2016 Primaries
Democrat and Republican
Predictions by William Stickevers
Accuracy: 86.7%
- Total Predictions: 98
- Accurate Predictions: 85
Five Thirty Eight:
51/57 accurate predictions, 89% accuracy
PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2016 PRIMARIES
Senator Obama vs. Senator Clinton
Democratic Primaries/Caucuses
Hilary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders
Clinton
Sanders
Republican Primaries/Caucuses
Donald Trump vs. Ted Cruz vs. Marco Rubio vs. John Kasich
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Track Record for 99 Primary Elections as of June 15, 2016:
| FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers |
| 89% correct | 88% correct | 88% correct | 87% correct |
| 57 projections | 97 projections | 42 projections | 98 projections |
51 correct  | 85 correct | 37 correct | 85 correct |
6 incorrect  | 11 incorrect | 4 incorrect | 12 incorrect |
| 42 no projection given | 2 no projection given | 57 no projection given | 1 no projection given |
Below are current projections for upcoming Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses, as well as the track record for past elections.
Included probabilities:
FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver
PredictIt.com
Political Prediction Market (CNN.com)
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
February 1 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Iowa | Clinton 67% Trump 46% | Clinton 58% Trump 60% | Clinton 55% Trump |
February 9 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| New Hampshire | Sanders 99% Trump 69% | Sanders 90% Trump 90% | Sanders 80% Trump 60% |
February 20 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Nevada (D) | n/a | Clinton 57% | Clinton 50% |
| South Carolina (R) | Trump 76% | Trump 93% | Trump |
February 23 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Nevada (R) | n/a | Trump 74% | Trump |
February 27 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| South Carolina (D) | Clinton 99% | n/a | Clinton 60% |
March 1 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Alabama | Clinton 99% Trump 94% | Clinton 86% Trump 97% | Clinton 80% Trump 85% |
| Alaska (R) | n/a | Trump 90% | Trump 90% |
| Arkansas | Clinton 97% Trump 52% | Clinton 86% Trump 83% | Clinton 80% Trump 50% |
| Colorado (D) | n/a | Sanders 75% | Sanders 75% |
| Georgia | Clinton 99% Trump 88% | Clinton 99% n/a | Clinton 90% Trump 80% |
| Massachusetts | Clinton 94% Trump 99% | Sanders 72% Trump 98% | Dem n/a Trump 98% |
| Minnesota | n/a | Sanders 70% Trump 70% | Sanders 80% Trump 50% |
| Oklahoma | Clinton 51% Trump 68% | Clinton 80% Trump 88% | Clinton 80% Trump 55% |
| Tennessee | Clinton 99% Trump 92% | Clinton 80% Trump 95% | Clinton 85% Trump 80% |
| Texas | Clinton 99% Cruz 87% | Clinton 81% Cruz 84% | Clinton 70% Cruz 85% |
| Vermont | Sanders 99% Rep n/a | Sanders 98% Trump 95% | Sanders 90% Trump 90% |
| Virginia | Clinton 99% Trump 69% | Clinton 75% Trump 91% | Clinton 70% Trump 50% |
March 5 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Kansas | (D) n/a Trump 51% | Sanders 91% Cruz 99% | Sanders 99% Cruz 60% |
| Kentucky (R) | n/a | Cruz 63% | Trump 53% |
| Louisiana | Clinton 99% Trump 96% | Clinton 99% Trump 85% | Clinton 99% Trump 90% |
| Maine (R) | n/a | Cruz 87% | Trump 53% |
| Nebraska (D) | n/a | Sanders 93% | Sanders 90% |
March 6 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Maine (D) | n/a | Sanders 95% | Sanders 90% |
| Puerto Rico (R) | n/a | Rubio 66% | Rubio 60% |
As of March 7, 2016:
March 8 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Hawaii (R) | n/a | Rubio 45% | n/a | Rubio 45% |
| Idaho (R) | n/a | Cruz 60% | Cruz 71% | Cruz 55% |
| Michigan | Clinton 99% Trump 90% | Clinton 93% Trump 91% | Clinton 92% Trump 86% | Clinton 90% Trump 85% |
| Mississippi | Clinton 99% (R) n/a | Clinton 99% Trump 83% | Clinton 99% Trump 70% | Clinton 95% Trump 70% |
as of March 14, 2016:
March 15 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Florida | Clinton 99% Trump 97% | Clinton 94% Trump 93% | Clinton 98% Trump 96% | Clinton 90% Trump 90% |
| Illinois | Clinton 88% Trump 62% | Clinton 53% Trump 72% | Clinton 55% Trump 87% | Clinton 52% Trump 80% |
| Missouri | Clinton 54% Rep: n/a | Sanders 68% Trump 54% | Sanders 56% Trump 80% | Sanders 50% Trump 52% |
| North Carolina | Clinton 99% Trump 88% | Clinton 92% Trump 87% | Clinton 94% Trump 85% | Clinton 95% Trump 60% |
| Ohio | Clinton 95% Kasich 86% | Clinton 60% Kasich 72% | Clinton 52% Kasich 84% | Clinton 50% Kasich 52% |
as of March 20, 2016:
March 22 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Arizona | Dem n/a Trump 84% | Clinton 90% Trump 90% | Clinton 92% Trump 84% | Clinton 90% Trump 85% |
| Idaho (D) | n/a | Sanders 81% | n/a | Sanders 80% |
| Utah | n/a | Sanders 75% Cruz 96% | Sanders 77% Cruz 96% | Sanders 80% Cruz 90% |
as of March 25, 2016:
March 26 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Alaska (D) | n/a | Sanders 93% | n/a | Sanders 70% |
| Hawaii (D) | n/a | Sanders 73% | n/a | Sanders 60% |
| Washington (D) | n/a | Sanders 97% | n/a | Sanders 85% |
as of April 4, 2016:
April 5 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Wisconsin | Sanders 73% Cruz 91% | Sanders 88% Cruz 82% | Sanders 98% Cruz 96% | Sanders 50% Trump 50% |
as of April 7, 2016:
April 9 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Wyoming (D) | n/a | Sanders 98% | n/a | Sanders 90% |
as of April 10, 2016:
April 19 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| New York | Clinton 97% Trump 99% | Clinton 86% Trump 96% | Clinton 77% Trump 99% | Clinton 80% Trump 90% |
as of April 25, 2016:
April 26 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Connecticut | Clinton 76% Trump 99% | Clinton 81% Trump 97% | Clinton 89% Trump 99% | Clinton 90% Trump 90% |
| Delaware | n/a | Clinton 95% Trump 97% | Clinton 92% Trump 99% | Clinton 90% Trump 90% |
| Maryland | Clinton 97% Trump 99% | Clinton 97% Trump 94% | Clinton 98% Trump 99% | Clinton 90% Trump 90% |
| Pennsylvania | Clinton 99% Trump 99% | Clinton 96% Trump 96% | Clinton 90% Trump 97% | Clinton 70% Trump 80% |
| Rhode Island | n/a | Sander 55% Trump 97% | Clinton 85% Trump 98% | Clinton 70% Trump 90% |
as of May 2, 2016:
May 3 | Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/27/16) |
| Indiana | Clinton 91% Trump 83% | Clinton 76% Trump 95% | Clinton 72% Trump 92% | Clinton 80% Trump 85% |
as of May 9, 2016:
May 10 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (5/5/16) |
| Nebraska (R) | n/a | Trump 96% | Trump 80% | |
| West Virginia | Sanders 63% Rep n/a | Sanders 87% Trump 99% | Sanders 72% | Sanders 90% Trump 90% |
as of May 16, 2016:
May 17 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| Kentucky (D) | n/a | Clinton 61% | n/a | Clinton 50% |
| Oregon | n/a | Sanders 82% Trump 99% | Sanders 80% | Sanders 80% Trump 80% |
May 24 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
| Washington (R) | n/a | Trump 99% | Trump 85% |
as of June 6, 2016:
June 7 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| California | Clinton 90% Trump 97% | Clinton 73% Trump 99% | Clinton 61% | Clinton 70% Trump 90% |
| Montana | n/a | Sanders 97% Trump 99% | Sanders 80% | Sanders 55% Trump 80% |
| New Jersey | Clinton 99% Rep n/a | Clinton 97% Trump 99% | Clinton 98% | Clinton 90% Trump 95% |
| New Mexico | n/a | Clinton 86% Trump 99% | Clinton 78% | Clinton 80% Trump 85% |
| North Dakota (D) | n/a | Sanders 96% | n/a | Sanders 55% |
| South Dakota | n/a | Sanders 86% Trump 99% | Sanders 82% | Sanders 50% Trump 80% |
June 14 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
| District of Columbia (D) | n/a | Clinton 97% | n/a | Clinton 95% |
July 18-21 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
| Republican National Convention | Trump 92% | n/a | Trump 85% |
July 25-28 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
| Democratic National Convention | Clinton 92% | Clinton 97% | Clinton 95% |
as of July 21, 2016:
November 8 | FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
| U.S. Presidential Election | Clinton 60.2% | Clinton 66% | Clinton 68% |
These predictions were originally posted on William Stickevers’s blog: https://williamstickevers.blog/politics-and-astrology-u-s-elections/2016-u-s-presidential-election/astroprobability-2016-presidential-election/