U.S. ELECTION PREDICTIONS TRACK RECORD
2014 Midterm Election
“Too Close To Call” Races
Predictions by William Stickevers
Accuracy: 83.3%
- Total Predictions: 6
- Accurate Predictions: 5
Five Thirty Eight:
3 accurate predictions, 50% accuracy
PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2014 MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Closely Contested Senate Races
Accuracy Track Record for the “Too Close To Call” Races in the 2014 U.S. Midterm Elections:
| FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver | William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary | FINAL RESULT | |
| Georgia – Senate, Perdue(R)* vs. Nunn(D) |  Perdue | Perdue | Perdue |
| Iowa – Senate, Ernst(D)* vs. Braley(R) |  Braley | Ernst | Ernst |
| Kansas – Senate, Roberts(R)* vs. Orman(I) | Orman | Orman | Roberts |
| North Carolina – Senate, Hagan(D)* vs. Tillis(R) | Hagan | Tillis | Tillis |
| Wisconsin – Governor, Walker(R) vs. Burke(D) | Walker | Walker | Walker |
| Louisiana – Senate Runoff Race, Landrieu(D)* vs. Cassidy(R) | Cassidy | Cassidy | Cassidy |
2014 MIDTERM ELECTION PREDICTIONS
November 4, 2014
Senate Projection Map for 2014 Midterm Election
Georgia Senate – Perdue (R) vs. Nunn (D)
The Georgia Senate race is one of the few races in the country that could break heavily toward Democrats. Democrats are excited about Michelle Nunn’s chances of ending the party’s 14-year dry spell in the Senate, and changing demographics may indeed help the party of Jackson regain its footing here. But this is still a Republican state, and even with massive black turnout in 2008, Democrats still couldn’t put the Senate seat away. The question here is whether Obama’s job approval rating will acts as an anchor, or cast a dark shadow on Michelle Nunn’s campaign. Election polling from SurveyUSA and Landmark were previously two of Perdue’s worst polls, showing that the race is moving away from Nunn, as people tune in and Georgia reverts to its fundamentals, and indicating there is movement back toward the Republican candidate, David Purdue. As of today odds-makers give Perdue a 74% chance of winning, and Dunn only a modest 26% chance. Therefore Perdue is the odds-makers favorite, and Nunn, is the Underdog.
The testimonies of the political contest horary snapshot, taken November 3, 2014 at 10:50am PST in San Francisco, CA, point to a runoff election, since neither candidate will likely get to 50 percent plus one. However, in a runoff election, Perdue’s election is almost assured.
Purdue Campaign – The Favorite: 1st House
Nunn Campaign – The Underdog: 7th House
U.S. Senate Seat – The Prize: 10th House
The Moon: The Georgia Electorate and Undecided Voters
Iowa Senate – Ernst (D) vs. Braley (R)
Iowa remains the closest race in the country. Republican state Senator Joni Ernst continues to run neck-and-neck with Democratic Representative Bruce Braley in a state President Barack Obama carried by nearly six percentage points. Ernst has trailed in only a single poll since mid-September; however, her lead is narrow. Oddmakers give Ernst a 70% chance of winning, and Braley only a 30% chance. Therefore Ernst is the odds-makers favorite, and Braley, is the Underdog.
Based on the testimonies of the latest political contest horary snapshot taken November 2, 2014 at 10:59 pm PST, San Francisco, CA, Ernst will squeak out a victory in a really, really tight race come Election night.
Ernst Campaign – The Favorite: 1st House
Braley Campaign – The Underdog: 7th House
U.S. Senate Seat – The Prize: 10th House
The Moon: The Iowa Electorate and Undecided Voters
Kansas Senate – Roberts (R)* vs. Orman (I)
The Kansas race between embattled, weak Senator Pat Roberts (R) and Independent Greg Orman is perhaps the closest, most difficult-to-predict Senate race in the country. While the Kansas constituent is unlikely to elect a Democrat, it may well elect a non-Republican. Independent candidate Greg Orman has actually led GOP candidate Pat Roberts in head-to-head polling to date, although there is still a large number of undecided voters. According to odds-makers Orman has a 53% chance of winning, with Roberts having a 47% chance. Therefore Orman is the odds-makers Favorite and Roberts the Underdog. Orman has a slight lead, but again there are a huge number of undecideds, so it’s anyone’s ballgame now with this race going down to the wire.
Based on the testimonies of the political contest horary snapshot, taken November 4, 2014 at 10:24 am PST in San Francisco, CA, Greg Orman’s momentum seems to have stalled out, but many undecideds are reluctant to break for Roberts, the GOP candidate.
Predicted Winner: Greg Orman (D)
Orman Campaign – The Favorite: 1st House
Roberts Campaign – The Underdog: 7th House
U.S. Senate Seat – The Prize: 10th House
The Moon: The Kansas Electorate and Undecided Voters
North Carolina Senate Race – Tillis (R) vs. Hagan (D)*
Senator Kay Hagan has generally led in the polls, but Thom Tillis has clearly narrowed the gap over the past week now that the Republican ad blitz is underway. Although Hagan’s lead continues to trickle away, she may well be able to run out the clock. This is Hagan’s race to lose as we enter the closing days, however odds-makers give the incumbent Senator a 70% a chance of winning, with House Speaker Thom Tillis given only a modest 30% chance of winning. Therefore Hagan – is the odds-makers Favorite and Tillis the Underdog.
Based on the testimonies of the latest political contest horary snapshot taken November 1, 2014 at 6:40 pm PDT, San Francisco, CA, Hagan’s campaign is in deep trouble.
Expect a major upset on Election night.
Hagan Campaign – The Favorite: 1st House
Tillis Campiagn – The Underdog: 7th House
U.S. Senate Seat – The Prize: 10th House
The Moon: The N.C. Electorate and Undecided Voters
Wisconsin Governor – Walker (R)* vs. Burke (D)
Governor Scott Walker has generally led in the polls, but Mary Burke has hung tough. This race is anybody’s ballgame as we enter the closing weeks. Both candidates are knotted up at 47% at the polls, however Vegas Oddsmakers give Madison School Board member Mary Burke 57% a chance of winning, and the governor Walker a modest 43% chance of winning. Therefore Burke is the odds-makers Favorite and Walker is the Underdog.
Mundane Horary Question: Walker (R)* vs. Burke (D), who will win the Wisconsin Governor Race in 2014?
Burke Campaign – The Favorite: 1st House
Walker Campaign – The Underdog: 7th House
Governorship of Wisconsin – The Prize: 10th House
The Moon: The Remaining Set of Undecided Voters in the Electorate
Winner: Governor Scott Walker
2014 LOUISIANA SENATE RACE – CASSIDY VS. LANDRIEU: DECEMBER 6TH RUNOFF
November 17, 2014
2014 Louisiana Senate Race – Cassidy (R) vs. Landrieu (D)*
Senator Mary Landrieu actually edged out GOP Representative Bill Cassidy on Election Day, 42%-41% percent, a difference of just over 16,000 votes. But Tea Party candidate Rob Maness, who finished with 14% of the vote, is campaigning for Cassidy now. Although the Louisiana Senator is now considered the Underdog according to oddsmakers, Landrieu claims she has a path to victory in her Dec. 6 runoff. However, her GOP Opponent is so confident he has the race in hand that he’s only agreed to debate Landrieu once, instead of the six encounters Landrieu wants. So the political contest horary question is, despite the odds and the recent GOP mid-term election victories:
“Does Mary Landrieu have a prayer?”
Based the horary testimonies the answer is a resounding NO!
The testimonies of the political contest horary snapshot, taken November 16th, 2014 at 07:36 pm PST in San Francisco, CA, point to a decisive victory for the GOP on December 6th.
Cassidy Campaign – The Favorite: 1st House
Landrieu Campaign – The Underdog: 7th House
U.S. Senate Seat – The Prize: 10th House
The Moon: The Lousisana Electorate and remaining Undecided Voters
These predictions were originally posted on William Stickevers’s blog: https://williamstickevers.blog/2014/11/04/2014-midterm-election-predictions/