Predictions 2008 Presidential Race | Nevada | William Stickevers

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Predictions: 2008 Presidential Race

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:
NEVADA

Posted October 5, 2008

Although Nevada has only five Electoral College votes it has chosen the winning candidate in the last seven presidential elections. Nevada is considered a battleground swing state and considered a “Toss-Up” by most pollsters. President Bush won the state by a small margin in the 2004 election.  John McCain, viewed favorably by 54% by Nevada voters, has held a modest lead over Barack Obama since July. However Nevada is one of the three targeted southwestern states by the Obama campaign along with New Mexico and Colorado and has been making meaningful progress among Hispanic and white male voters. Also, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey now shows Obama taking a small lead for the first time, attracting 51% of the vote with John McCain attracting 47%.

So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Nevada in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: October 4th 2008 at 11:45 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.

NevadaChart

Rasmussen Markets prices show that Obama has a 60.0% chance of winning Nevada in November while McCain has a 40.0% chance. Therefore the Obama campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the McCain campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize - Nevada’s 5 Electoral College votes - and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Cancer rises. Since the Moon rules to electorate we must use the next sign over Leo, to assign a proper significator. Therefore the Sun rules the Obama campaign. The Sun is Libra – its fall - and peregrine, indicating that many Nevada voters are not comfortable with the idea of an Obama being president. However the Sun is strongly placed in the 4th house showing that the Obama campaign has sufficient organizational strength to overcome the significant demographic challenges it faces. Also the Sun is applying to the North Node and Neptune, testimonies that show that Obama will continue to make gains with progressive, independent, and votes not affiliated with either party.

Saturn rules the 7th house of McCain campaign. Jupiter conjunct the 7th House cusp while benefic Venus sextiles Saturn. These fortunate testimonies indicate that McCain is highly favored by voters in Nevada and his base support is from blue collar and social conservatives. However Saturn is in Virgo, peregrine, weakly placed in the 3rd house. Saturn’s weak position indicates that the McCain campaign team is losing ground and on the defensive as Obama continues to make small but decisive gains.

Conclusion: The Moon’s next application is a square to Uranus indicating that unprecedented events will continue to occur that will disrupt the dynamics of the presidential race. Saturn will also aspect Uranus by opposition indicating that his McCain’s campaign going down the home stretch into Election Day will stall and lose momentum. The Sun’s next application is a square to Jupiter. Therefore, as more tumultuous news about the economy comes forth, Obama will slowly gain support from both rural and working class voters that will provide him the opportunity to carry the Silver State on Election Day.

Winner: Barack Obama


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