Predictions 2008 Presidential Race | Florida | William Stickevers

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Predictions: 2008 Presidential Race

Horary Prediction for Election 2008:

Posted September 15, 2008

Over the last 2 decades Florida been a decisive “battleground state” that has carried the Republican presidential candidates eight out of the last ten elections in recent history. John McCain and Barack Obama are in a very tight race in Florida with neither candidate holding more than a 3 percentage-point advantage since July. The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 500 likely voters conducted on September 7th 2008 shows John McCain tied with Barack Obama each at 48% of voters.

Rasmussen Markets, a “futures market”, gives John McCain significant edge over Barack Obama to win in the Sunshine State because George W. Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47% in 2004, and Obama is viewed unfavorably by 45% of registered voters.

Click on chart below to view full-size, readable chart.


So the contest horary question is, “Who will take Florida in the 2008 presidential race?” Date and place of when the horary question was asked: September 9th 2008 at 1:12 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Rasmussen Markets prices imply that McCain has a 67.0% chance of winning while Obama has a 32.1% chance. Therefore the McCain campaign is assigned the 1st house as the favorite and the Obama campaign is assigned the 7th house as the underdog. The 10th house rules the prize - Florida’s 27 Electoral college votes - and the Moon rules the electorate.

In this figure Sagittarius rises, therefore Jupiter rules the 1st house of the McCain campaign. Jupiter is debilitated in the sign of Capricorn with modest strength being placed in the 2nd house indicating that McCain’s national campaign is losing momentum.

However, Jupiter is given some strength by being in his term and is in mutual reception with Mars (lord of the day and in the 10th house) by exaltation and term, indicating the McCain will have the support of its very popular Republican governor and the demographic edge at the local level to carry the state.

Mercury rules the 7th house of the Obama campaign. Mercury is peregrine indicating that voters in Florida are not at all comfortable with the idea of Obama being president. However, Mercury is strongly placed in the 10th house and receives Venus which is dignified by sign indicating that the Obama campaign has the edge in organizational strength and will benefit the most from a high voter turnout. Also Mercury is applying to the North Node and Neptune, testimonies that show that Obama will continue to make meaningful progress among Florida’s growing creative class, progressives, and voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Conclusion: The Moon’s next application is a conjunction to Jupiter. The Moon receives Saturn and Jupiter applies to Saturn by trine. This indicates that McCain is viewed most favorably by social conservative and senior citizen voters, has a significant demographic advantage among the electorate, and will likely carry the state “Sun Shine” state going down the home stretch into election day.

Winner: John McCain

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